The 2026 sowing campaign in Ukraine is entering its initial phase with uneven geography and increased production costs. Denys Marchuk, Deputy Head of the Ukrainian Agri Council (UAC), explained why this is happening at a briefing on March 11, UNN reports.
According to him, southern regions are already working in the fields, while central and northern regions are still being held back by the weather.
"There is still snow on the fields, and the ground is frozen, so equipment cannot fully start working," Marchuk explains.
Geography and calendar of the 2026 sowing campaign: what experts say
According to the UAC, this year's sowing campaign in most regions will start approximately two weeks later than last season.
"(To say, - ed.) that this is catastrophic is not necessary. The active phase can last until the conditional beginning of May. At the same time, the time window for intensive work is limited: in fact, farmers expect plus or minus 45 to 50 days that can be used for work," Marchuk clarifies.
This means a need for greater concentration of equipment, people, and fuel in a shorter period, and, consequently, higher operational risks for farms.
Crop structure: farmers are betting on export spring crops
According to Denys Marchuk, Ukraine will reach last year's figures for spring crops and may sow about 13 million hectares. The focus, as last year, is shifting to crops with a clear export economy and partial domestic demand.
"This will include corn, spring wheat, spring barley, sunflower, and soybeans. These crops provide more predictable sales, which is more important for business in wartime," says the Deputy Head of the UAC.
Fertilizers: deficit and rising prices as a basic reality for Ukraine
One of the key problems in preparing for the sowing campaign, according to the UAC, is the availability of mineral fertilizers.
Denys Marchuk reminds that the deficit was formed not only by the market but also by logistical and security restrictions: some goods cannot stably enter by sea due to their explosive status. In particular, this refers to ammonium nitrate.
According to the expert, the association has already appealed to the Ministry of Economy and other structures to unblock supplies.
"However, as of now, these permits are not yet available, the campaign has already begun, we understand that we will not be able to introduce it on time," Marchuk summarized.
The energy factor also affects the overall picture. Escalating events in the Middle East, according to market logic, increase risks for gas, and the gas component is critical for the nitrogen group. As a result, farmers are seeing rising prices for ammonia fertilizers and carbamide.
"Carbamide is growing in price quite significantly. In general, the additional financial burden on mineral fertilizers alone will be about 20-25% plus the price that was not expected," admits the Deputy Head of the UAC.
How the fuel situation affects the pace and quality of sowing
The second major block of risks for farmers is diesel fuel.
Denys Marchuk cites a telling dynamic: before certain events in the Middle East, the wholesale price for producers was about 55 UAH/liter, now it fluctuates between 74-79 UAH/liter. For farms, this translates into a direct additional cost in the cost per hectare.
The speaker provides a calculation using the example of an average enterprise with 1000 hectares and a consumption of 70 liters/hectare. The price difference is about 19 UAH/liter, which gives +1330 UAH/hectare (70×19).
"Rounded, this is about an additional 1400 hryvnias per 1 hectare, and a total of approximately 1.4 million hryvnias in additional costs for an area of 1000 hectares," he says.
Therefore, currently, small and medium-sized agribusinesses are feeling the situation most acutely. According to Marchuk, not everyone can create fuel or material reserves in advance, including due to security risks.
"When it 'hits,' you don't know what the situation will be at your enterprise," he explains from the perspective of agribusiness owners.
But in the end, according to Marchuk, the sowing campaign starts without a catastrophic shortage of resources, but with expensive input parameters that will put pressure on the economics of production throughout the season.
The UAC's position currently boils down to cautious realism: work has begun, there is no critical stoppage, but some farms will apply less fertilizer, and the key expectation remains stabilization in the energy and fuel markets.