Ukraine's successes on the battlefield in 2026 are likely forcing Vladimir Putin to reconsider his initial strategy for achieving victory in the war. The Kremlin is increasingly betting on large-scale strikes against Ukraine's energy and critical infrastructure in winter, according to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), UNN writes.
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Analysts believe that Russia has already begun its winter strike campaign for 2026–2027. It started in late September—before the beginning of the heating season.
According to ISW's assessment, the Russian leadership may be counting on systematic strikes against energy facilities and other critical infrastructure making civilian life so difficult that this will increase pressure on Ukraine and force it to agree to Moscow's demands. Inserted markdown text
Russia started the winter campaign earlier
ISW points out that Russia has attacked Ukraine's energy infrastructure every winter since 2022–2023. However, this time the campaign began earlier than usual.
Analysts suggest that in this way Russia is trying to take advantage of its new strike capabilities before Ukraine can scale up effective means of countering Russian ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones.
In just one week, from September 27 to October 4, Russian forces used more than 1,900 attack drones against Ukraine, including more than 800 jet-powered drones, around 1,700 aerial bombs, and 25 missiles.
ISW believes that the Kremlin is also trying to portray the intensification of the strikes as a "response" to Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory. At the same time, analysts note that the Russian Federation has been systematically striking Ukraine since the very beginning of the full-scale invasion.