NATO’s top military commander is working on a strategy to achieve a swift victory against a Russian attack on the alliance’s eastern flank, with a particular focus on integrating new defense technologies, such as drones and artificial intelligence, into traditional defense. Bloomberg reported, UNN writes.
Details
The document, titled "Theory of Victory," which the publication reviewed in an unclassified form, will be presented by NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, General Alexus Grynkewich, in Poland on October 12, amid heightened tensions between NATO and Russia.
According to senior officials and diplomats familiar with the matter, it aims to clarify how the alliance would respond to a possible invasion of NATO territory. There have recently been numerous reports that Moscow is considering such actions, the publication writes.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently said there were no signs that Russia was preparing for a conventional attack on the alliance, but Europe must be prepared for sustained hybrid attacks.
Grynkewich’s spokesperson, Colonel Martin O’Donnell, declined to discuss the plan’s details but emphasized that the alliance is "purely defensive."
"The Supreme Allied Commander Europe’s ‘Theory of Victory’ is simple: preserve NATO’s advantage," O’Donnell said. "Given the unstable and complex global security situation, we need to create the conditions now to deter aggression and, if necessary, prevail in the event of an attack."
Although the general principles of NATO’s approach to warfare are known, open discussion of them is rare, the publication notes. The initiative is intended to reassure the public about NATO’s readiness while also presenting a more concrete picture of what lies behind increased defense spending.
The document also aims to illustrate to allies how NATO will integrate conventional weapons with new capabilities that have emerged since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as well as call for increased investment in defense and better preparedness, sources said.
The strategy insists on NATO’s defensive nature and avoiding unintended provocations, while clearly mentioning the need for collective action against hybrid threats – aggressive actions below the threshold of conflict – as part of deterrence. By demonstrating readiness, NATO wants the adversary to conclude that it cannot win, the strategy says.
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"But if NATO were attacked, it would block the invasion through a combination of ground forces and other resources from NATO’s Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative, a concept based on low-cost unmanned vehicles, minimally crewed systems, and artificial-intelligence-based targeting. Once it had freedom of maneuver, it would seek to destroy enemy command and control in order to achieve a rapid and overwhelming defeat of Russian forces," the publication says.
NATO allies, particularly in Europe, have significantly increased defense spending, and tensions have arisen over how to prioritize conventional weapons, such as tanks, versus alternative technologies that have come to the forefront in the war in Ukraine, the publication writes.
This summer, the United States sent NATO allies a questionnaire assessing their defense spending and support for the policies of U.S. President Donald Trump, in order to inform decisions on a planned reduction in U.S. military assets allocated to the defense of Europe.
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As part of the questionnaire, the United States asked whether the allies still had forces that could be made available to NATO for Grynkewich’s defense plans, the publication notes.