China's population declined for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, as the birth rate fell to a record low, official data released on Monday showed, with experts warning of further contraction, UNN reports with reference to Reuters.
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The country's population decreased by 3.39 million to 1.405 billion, a faster decline than in 2024, while the total number of births in 2025 fell to 7.92 million, a 17% decrease from 9.54 million in 2024. The number of deaths rose to 11.31 million from 10.93 million in 2024, according to data from China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
China's birth rate dropped to 5.63 per 1,000 people.
The 2025 birth rate was "roughly the same level as in 1738, when China's population was only about 150 million," said Yi Fuxian, a demographer at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
China's death rate, which was 8.04 per 1,000 people in 2025, was the highest since 1968.
China's population has been shrinking since 2022 and is rapidly aging, complicating Beijing's plan to boost domestic consumption and curb debt.
NBS data showed that the number of people over 60 years old reached about 23% of the total population. By 2035, the number of people over 60 will reach 400 million – roughly equivalent to the combined populations of the United States and Italy – meaning hundreds of millions of people will leave the workforce at a time when pension budgets are already strained. China has already raised the retirement age, and men are now expected to work until 63 instead of 60, and women until 58 instead of 55.
The number of marriages in China decreased by one-fifth in 2024, the largest drop on record, with over 6.1 million couples registering marriages, compared to 7.68 million in 2023.
Marriages are usually a leading indicator of birth rates in China.
Demographers say that a decision made in May 2025 to allow couples to marry anywhere in the country, rather than just in their place of residence, is likely to lead to a temporary increase in birth rates.
The number of marriages increased by 22.5% year-on-year to 1.61 million in the third quarter of 2025, putting China on track to halt a nearly decade-long annual decline in marriages. Full data for 2025 will be released later this year.
Authorities are also trying to promote "positive views on marriage and childbearing" in an attempt to reverse the impact of the one-child policy, which was in effect from 1980 to 2015 and helped combat poverty but changed Chinese families and society.
Population movement has exacerbated the demographic problem, as a large number of people move from rural farms to cities, where it is more expensive to have children.
Data shows that China's urbanization rate in 2025 was 68%, compared to approximately 43% in 2005.
Policymakers have made population planning a key part of the country's economic strategy, and this year Beijing will face total potential costs of about 180 billion yuan (US$25.8 billion) to stimulate birth rates, according to Reuters estimates.
Key expenditures include a national child subsidy, first introduced last year, and a commitment that women will have "no out-of-pocket expenses" throughout their pregnancy in 2026, with all medical expenses, including in vitro fertilization (IVF), being fully reimbursed by the national health insurance fund.
China has one of the lowest birth rates in the world – about 1 birth per woman, significantly below the replacement rate of 2.1. Other East Asian countries, including Taiwan, South Korea, and Singapore, have similarly low birth rates – about 1.1 births per woman.
The number of women of reproductive age in China, defined by the UN as women aged 15 to 49, will decrease by more than two-thirds to less than 100 million by the end of the century.