Scientists warn that the threat of the Atlantic current stopping is no longer unlikely, making a sharp reduction in fossil fuel emissions even more urgent to prevent catastrophic consequences. This is reported by The Guardian, citing research, UNN reports.
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The Atlantic current is a key element of the Earth's climate system. It carries warm tropical water to Europe and the Arctic, where it cools, sinks, and forms deep currents in the opposite direction. This circulation is known to be the weakest in the last 1600 years due to the climate crisis.
Previous models suggested that a collapse by 2100 was unlikely. However, a new analysis, which extended the modeling to 2300–2500, showed that the "tipping point" that makes the current's cessation inevitable could be reached in the coming decades. The collapse itself could occur 50–100 years after that.
The study found that with increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the Atlantic current stopped in 70% of models, at medium emission levels - in 37%, and even at low emissions - in 25%.
The consequences could be catastrophic: a shift in the tropical rain belt, on which millions of people depend; sharp winter cooling and summer droughts in Western Europe; and an additional 50 cm rise in sea level.
I previously said that the probability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation collapsing due to global warming is less than 10%. Now, even with low emissions, within the framework of the Paris Agreement, it could be as high as 25%.
According to him, the "tipping point" will likely be reached in the next 10–20 years.
Researchers note that observations in the North Atlantic over the past 5–10 years confirm the trend of weakening circulation. Even under intermediate and low emission scenarios, AMOC will slow down significantly by the end of this century and may then stop completely.
The authors emphasize that such results can no longer be described as an "unlikely but high-impact" scenario, as was done in the previous IPCC report.
At the same time, scientists warn that the exact moment of collapse is difficult to predict due to a lack of observations and differences between models. But the very fact of a sharp increase in risk means that carbon emissions must be reduced immediately.