Putin pressures Lukashenko in an attempt to open a "second front" - WSJ
Kyiv • UNN
Russia pressures Belarus to use it as a staging ground in the war against Ukraine or for operations against NATO. Belarus has emerged as a potential new front in the Kremlin's confrontation with the West.
Russia's closest ally, Belarus, has emerged as a potential new front in the Kremlin's confrontation with the West, as Moscow seeks to strengthen its military alliance with the country. Russia is pressuring Belarus in hopes of using it as a staging ground to expand Russia's war in Ukraine or to launch unconventional operations against NATO members, reports The Wall Street Journal, writes UNN.
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"Earlier this year, Moscow launched a campaign of pressure on Belarus in hopes of using it as a staging ground to expand Russia's war in Ukraine or to launch unconventional operations against members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization," said former and current Russian and European officials.
This move, the publication writes, "signals that Moscow may be weighing a risky escalation of the war," as its army struggles to advance in eastern Ukraine, and Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin faces weakened domestic support more than four years after the start of the invasion. "Officials say Belarus, where Moscow bases tactical nuclear weapons, could be a key player in this plan," the article states.
Belarusian ruler Alexander Lukashenko said that French President Emmanuel Macron, during an approximately 90-minute phone conversation last month, told him that Paris has information that Belarus is about to increase its involvement in the war. He said Macron warned him against this. A Macron aide confirmed the call, stating that the French president "emphasized the risks Belarus would face if it allowed itself to be drawn into Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine."
"Entering the war would contradict Lukashenko's strategic goals, which appear to be related to improving his relations with the West," said Alexander Piroznikov, founder of the East European Strategic Forum, a think tank and consulting firm specializing in Russia and Belarus.
"But recently, Belarus has been selling Moscow gasoline and other oil products, as it faces a growing fuel deficit after Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil and refining infrastructure. Moscow is also increasingly using drone ground stations on Belarusian territory to direct drones launched from Russia deep into Ukraine. About 2,000 Russian military personnel are currently stationed in Belarus," the publication writes.
"Belarus's support has drawn Ukraine's attention," the publication notes, pointing to an address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
"Nevertheless, Russia is increasing pressure on Belarus," said former and current Russian and European officials. "Moscow's requests include using Belarusian territory to carry out drone attacks on Ukraine, expanding the front line westward, and diverting Ukrainian troops from priority areas in the east. Alternatively, Belarus could be used for operations against its NATO neighbors," the article states.
A former Russian intelligence officer, briefed on the negotiations between Russia and Belarus, as the publication writes, "confirmed that Moscow is pressuring Belarus, threatening to deprive Minsk of the financial resources on which its operations depend." He said that "most of the conversations took place between Lukashenko and Russia's ambassador to the country, Boris Gryzlov."
Last month, Russia and Belarus held joint nuclear exercises, and Russian troops transported nuclear warheads to Belarusian ballistic-missile field positions. Both defense ministries released videos showing, according to them, trucks removing nuclear warheads from storage and delivering them to Belarusian troops. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that the Russian armed forces are conducting operations: "Belarus is not participating."
"Of course, there are no signs that Russia is imminently planning to use Belarus for a military operation, but such a possibility exists," say people familiar with the matter. "Such an operation would not necessarily be a conventional military attack," the sources said. "It could be an attack aimed at testing NATO defenses or undermining support for Ukraine, such as when 20 Russian drones entered Polish airspace from Belarus last summer," the publication writes.