The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its forecast for global merchandise trade in 2025, now expecting a 0.9% increase instead of the previously projected 0.2% decline. This is reported by UNN with reference to Times of India.
Details
This update was made possible by an 11% increase in US imports in the first half of the year, partly explained by premature purchases ahead of the new customs tariffs introduced on August 7.
However, the WTO warns that these tariffs could negatively impact trade in the second half of 2025 and in 2026. Asia is expected to be the main driver of global trade growth with a projected export increase of 4.9%.
In North America, imports are projected to decrease by 8.3% and exports by 4.2% in 2025. The WTO has lowered its forecast for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 1.8% from the previous 2.5%, indicating the potential negative impact of new customs tariffs.
These updates indicate some improvement in the global trade situation, but also point to potential risks associated with trade policies that could affect the global economy in the future.
Addition
Oil prices on Friday rose to a new weekly high after US President Donald Trump warned of "consequences" if Russia blocked a peace deal with Ukraine, intensifying supply concerns.
The International Energy Agency predicts a sharp drop in oil prices in 2026 due to oversupply and declining demand. The price of a barrel of Brent crude could fall to $58, which will affect gasoline prices.