The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reduced its forecast for wheat exports from Ukraine in the 2025-2026 marketing year (MY) from 15 million tons to 14.5 million tons, corn from 24.5 million tons to 23 million tons, and other grains from 3.09 million tons to 2.5 million tons. This was reported by UNN with reference to the December USDA report.
According to the government, corn production in Ukraine has sharply decreased due to reduced acreage and yields. Harvesting is slow due to wet weather conditions in the main growing regions.
It is noted that the forecast for corn harvest in Ukraine in 2025/26 MY has been reduced by 3 million tons to 29 million tons, which will still exceed last year's figure by 8%.
In addition to reducing corn exports, the USDA also worsened its forecast for its domestic consumption in Ukraine from 7 million tons to 6 million tons and carryover stocks from 1.55 million tons to 0.85 million tons.
As for wheat, its harvest estimate remained at 23 million tons, and the USDA explained the lower exports by an increase in domestic consumption from 7.1 million tons to 7.6 million tons.
Regarding other grain crops, their harvest forecast in the December report remained unchanged at 6.58 million tons, and the reduction in export volumes is explained by an increase in expected domestic consumption to 4.15 million tons.
Overall, the USDA increased its forecast for global wheat exports in 2025/26 MY by 1.5 million tons to 218.71 million tons, corn by 1.63 million tons to 205.10 million tons, and other grains by 0.33 million tons to 44.17 million tons.
However, while the USDA increased its estimate of carryover stocks for wheat by 3.44 million tons to 274.87 million tons, it reduced it for corn by 2.19 million tons to 279.15 million tons.