The export-import balance, foreign currency inflows, and the NBU's actions directly influence the exchange rate policy. However, due to the introduction of a controlled floating exchange rate, it is difficult to predict the price of the currency in the future. This opinion was expressed by Andriy Novak, Chairman of the Committee of Economists of Ukraine, in an exclusive commentary to UNN.
If we talk about the factors that shape the exchange rate, it is formed in two ways: the first is the commodity balance, the export-import balance, and the second is the financial balance, the inflow and outflow of currency from and into the country. And the third factor is the actions of the regulator, how it reacts to the dynamics of these two balances. Export-import and financial,
According to him, thanks to large-scale external financial support, the NBU now has record foreign exchange reserves, which Ukraine did not have even in the best peaceful years. "The NBU has every opportunity to dampen any currency fluctuations, which are fortunately quite moderate now, despite the war. Even in peaceful years, fluctuations were higher in amplitude. Therefore, if the NBU wanted to and somehow adhered to at least some exchange rate strategy, it has every opportunity to do so now," the economic expert said.
At the same time, Novak added that due to the so-called controlled floating exchange rate, it is difficult to predict exactly what the exchange rate will be in the future.
The NBU is currently pursuing a policy of so-called controlled floating exchange rate, which is more of a philosophical than an economic formulation, and it can be used to explain and justify and argue anything. It can be used to explain and justify and argue for anything, including maintaining exchange rate stability, devaluation of the hryvnia, revaluation, and anything else. A controlled floating exchange rate means that the NBU controls the exchange rate, but it is still formed by floating and depends on the market situation. Then the question arises: will the NBU control the exchange rate if it floats or not?
Add
Olena Sosiedka, co-founder of Ukraine's first fintech ecosystem Concord Fintech Solutions, said in a commentary to UNN that the dollar is likely to continue to rise by the end of the year . According to the expert, by 2025, the dollar may rise by about 2 hryvnias.
The expected rise in the dollar by the end of the year can be explained by the lack of foreign currency on the market, which is driven by inflationary risks and restrictions on access to international capital markets. It is important for the government and the National Bank of Ukraine to take steps to stabilize the financial system and increase investor confidence. At this stage, the priority should be to ensure macroeconomic stability and support domestic businesses,
Recall
The government registered a draft law "On the State Budget of Ukraine for 2025" in the Verkhovna Rada. The document sets the exchange rate at 45 hryvnia to the dollar.