Russian wheat exports in July–September 2025 decreased by 29% year-on-year. The continuation of the negative dynamics of grain exports will weaken Russia's position in the global market, UNN reports with reference to the Foreign Intelligence Service.
Russian wheat exports in July–September 2025 decreased by 29% year-on-year to 10.9 million tons. Against this background, the forecast for wheat supplies to foreign markets in 2025 has been reduced to 43.4 million tons. In the previous marketing year (2024–2025), Russia exported 53 million tons of grain, including 44 million tons of wheat.
The intelligence also named the key factors of the decline:
- weaker demand from key importers, primarily Egypt. Buyers are postponing new contracts, expecting prices to fall from $226 to $220 per ton;
- increased competition. In 2025, Argentina may increase wheat exports to 13 million tons (10.4 million tons a year earlier), Australia – to 25.5 million tons (compared to 21.3 million), while the EU is capable of increasing volumes to 32.4 million tons (28 million in 2024). The presence of French suppliers is growing in the markets of North Africa and the Middle East;
- deterioration of the profitability of Russian exports due to the strengthening of the ruble and rising domestic prices. In September, third-class wheat in Russia cost 14.5 thousand rubles per ton, which is 4% higher than last year. An additional factor was the increase in the duty on wheat exports by 30% – from 495.9 rubles to 655.6 rubles per ton from September 24 to 30.
The continuation of the negative dynamics of grain exports will weaken Russia's position in the global market, reduce foreign exchange earnings, and increase pressure on the economy, which is already under sanctions.