Russia may test NATO’s readiness to defend itself even before the war against Ukraine ends. At the same time, the Alliance’s member states are unable to deter Russian aggression on their own. The role of Ukraine and the domestic defense industry in the European security system was examined by UNN.
The Wall Street Journal, citing U.S. officials, reported that U.S. intelligence permits the possibility of Russia attempting attacks on one of the NATO countries. Possible scenarios include cyberattacks and local military operations.
In an exclusive comment to UNN, military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko explained that situations in which Russian weapons reach the territory of NATO countries already constitute a certain test.
Let us recall the recent incident involving Poland. This raises a very interesting question: was it a mistake or a deliberate action? We have little publicly available information, so it is difficult to draw final conclusions. However, if we analyze what was demonstrated by the Polish media, questions arise regarding the missile’s characteristics and its warhead
This could have been one of the options for testing the capabilities of a Russian missile to fly over a greater distance. In other words, this was not simply an accidental deviation, but the possibility of adapting a weapon to specific tasks. According to Kovalenko, such tests may have been taking place for a long time, but NATO countries are not always prepared to publicly acknowledge all the details.
The expert also believes that Russia may use similar incidents as an element of hybrid pressure, testing how far it can go without provoking a harsh military response. At the same time, Kovalenko believes that Russia may carry out a deliberate strike against civilian infrastructure.
Even if we now speak of the provocative nature of such actions, the problem is that any weapon that reaches the territory of a European state may sooner or later hit a civilian target. At that point, it could be claimed that it supposedly deviated from its trajectory, that a technical problem occurred, or that there was some other reason. But at that moment, the main question will no longer be whether it was deliberate. The main point is that Russia is testing the response
Weapons shortage as a challenge for Europe
According to the expert, the potential problem for Europe lies not only in military readiness but also in insufficient weapons-production rates. The shortage of certain types of missiles and interceptors in the United States, which has recently been discussed increasingly often, demonstrates the scale of the problem for the entire Western defense sector.
The expert believes that Europe needs not merely to increase defense funding, but to create production capabilities that can be rapidly scaled up in the event of a major war.
Europe is currently facing a very serious problem—insufficient production rates. Russia is capable of producing significant quantities of weapons, while Western countries cannot always replenish their stocks just as quickly. That is why Ukraine must not only be a consumer of Western weapons; Ukraine is already demonstrating that it can serve as a production hub for Europe
According to the expert, one of the most illustrative examples is Ukrainian artillery. He noted that the production of Ukraine’s "Bohdana" self-propelled howitzer was significantly scaled up thanks to investment and international cooperation.
We have a very illustrative example—the "Bohdana" self-propelled artillery system. Ukraine is currently producing more of these systems than the total number of comparable wheeled self-propelled artillery systems produced across all of Europe. And this is a very important indicator
The role of the Freyja antiballistic shield in protecting Europe
Separately, the expert assessed the prospects of the Freyja project, which envisages creating a system to counter ballistic threats through cooperation between Ukraine and its European partners.
Freyja is a promising project. It is not a system that will enter combat duty in a month or two. Its foundation is a Ukrainian missile with the capabilities needed to counter ballistic targets. But a fully fledged system also requires other elements that Ukraine does not yet produce in the necessary quantities. In other words, it is a kind of construction set in which the Ukrainian missile must be combined with European technologies
Kovalenko emphasized that European partners may have considerable interest in such a project, since the system will be cheaper than Patriot and will allow production to be scaled up.
This is also of interest to Europeans because such a system could potentially be significantly cheaper than Patriot. And Ukraine has already shown that it is capable of scaling up production when it receives European investment
As the co-owner and chief designer of Fire Point, Denys Shtilerman, previously noted, the full launch of the Freyja anti-ballistic program is scheduled for mid-2027. As Shtilerman explained, the first cluster of integration work has now been completed as part of the Freyja project. A technologically complex stage lies ahead: combining all the components into a single system, after which the system must undergo a full cycle of testing and practically confirm its ability to intercept ballistic targets.
Strengthening Europe's defense capabilities through Ukraine's defense industry
Kovalenko believes that it is precisely the combination of Ukrainian experience and European resources that could become one of the keys to forming a new security system for the continent. Ukraine has practical experience of war, while European countries possess significant financial, technological, and production resources.
Ukraine is now effectively a country that tests technologies in real combat conditions, scales up production, and adapts it very quickly to the needs of the front. Europe has the resources, technologies, and money. If these capabilities are combined properly, we can achieve an entirely different level of defense capability for Europe