The Verkhovna Rada adopted the law on the State Budget for 2026. The main estimate is calculated based on the assumption that the war will continue next year. Accordingly, the document provides for a significant need for external financing, a record increase in the deficit, and an exchange rate of 45.7 hryvnias per dollar and 49.4 hryvnias per euro. UNN asked fintech expert, co-founder of Concord Fintech Solutions Olena Sosedka about the main risks and currency forecasts for next year.
The 2026 budget adopted by parliament sets revenues at UAH 2 trillion 918 billion, while expenditures will reach UAH 4 trillion 781 billion. The deficit has been increased by almost UAH 6 billion to a record UAH 1.9 trillion, which is 18.5% of GDP. The need for external financing will be UAH 2 trillion 79 billion, which is actually half of all the country's expenditures. The minimum wage will increase to UAH 8,647, and the living wage to UAH 3,209. The government forecasts inflation at 9.9%, and an average exchange rate of UAH 45.7 per dollar and UAH 49.4 per euro.
Olena Sosedka, evaluating the country's budget for next year, noted that it is more a budget for survival than for development, as it will directly depend on the stability of external financing.
This is a realistic wartime budget, but it leaves the economy extremely vulnerable to any external fluctuations. More than 2 trillion hryvnias of financing from partners is an unprecedented figure. If even part of this resource is delayed, we will immediately feel it in the foreign exchange market
The fintech expert emphasizes that among the parameters laid down, the hryvnia exchange rate will be one of the key indicators of economic stability.
Provided that the current pace of financing and controlled inflation are maintained, we can expect that the average annual exchange rate in 2026 will fluctuate in the range of 46–48 hryvnias per dollar. During peak payment periods and delays in tranches, short-term drawdowns to 49 hryvnias are possible, but there are no grounds for going beyond 50 hryvnias today
Regarding the euro, the fintech expert believes that fluctuations will be even more dependent on the behavior of the dollar and the monetary policy of the European Central Bank.
The average euro exchange rate will be within 49–52 hryvnias. However, it should be understood that if Europe continues the cycle of interest rate hikes, the pressure on the hryvnia from this currency will increase
According to the fintech expert, the main financial risks next year remain inflationary pressure, a record deficit, and a high dependence of the budget on external injections.
The economy continues to operate in a mode of resilience, not growth. Businesses should include increased volatility of the foreign exchange market in their plans and focus on conservative scenarios