Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may be preparing a new large-scale winter campaign against Ukraine, attempting to increase pressure on Kyiv amid the deteriorating economic situation in Russia. This opinion was expressed by Western experts, UNN reports with reference to New York Post.
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According to analysts' estimates, after a failed spring offensive during which Russian troops lost more territory than they captured for the first time in three years, the Kremlin may bet on massive strikes in the winter.
Maria Snegovaya, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), believes that Russia may try to repeat the tactic of striking Ukraine's critical infrastructure.
Putin will likely wait for winter to resume large-scale attacks and create a humanitarian crisis, attempting to extract concessions regarding the Donbas
According to her, the upcoming campaign could prove to be larger than the previous one, when Russia launched a record number of missiles and drones daily at Ukrainian energy facilities and civilian infrastructure.
Karolina Hird, Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), suggests that Ukrainian railway and water infrastructure could become additional targets.
Russia may expand the list of targets, attacking the railway to disrupt logistics and water supply facilities
At the same time, experts point to increasingly serious problems in the Russian economy. According to analysts, the Russian federal budget deficit in the first five months of the year rose to $81.4 billion, which is twice as much as in the same period last year.
In addition, oil and gas revenues have decreased by almost 30%, and Russia's gold and foreign exchange reserves are showing the largest decline in decades.
Russia's gold reserves are shrinking, the civilian market is facing a labor shortage, and the economy is under serious pressure
According to experts, economic difficulties are already affecting Russia's ability to replenish army personnel. The recruitment rate of contract soldiers is declining, while losses at the front remain high.
Analysts also do not rule out that the Kremlin may resort to unpopular decisions to support the war machine.
We may see a new mobilization, cuts in payments to military personnel and veterans, or even the nationalization of the property of Russian elites to finance the war
Experts note that more and more problems that have accumulated in the Russian economy over recent years are beginning to directly affect the Kremlin's ability to continue the war against Ukraine.