The National Bank of Ukraine on July 30, 2026, presented an updated macroeconomic forecast for 2026–2028. The document outlines key benchmarks for the development of the domestic economy amid a prolonged full-scale war, systematic attacks on critical infrastructure, and a high level of geopolitical uncertainty.
Despite significant challenges, the regulator expects the preservation of macro-financial stability, gradual growth of real gross domestic product (GDP), and the accumulation of a historic maximum of international reserves.
UNN has analyzed in detail the key theses of the updated NBU forecast and found out what Ukrainians and businesses should expect in the next three years.
Financial shield: $54 billion in aid and a historic record of reserves
External financing remains the cornerstone of Ukraine's macroeconomic stability. According to the NBU, the expected volumes of international aid will be entirely sufficient to cover the state budget deficit without resorting to an emission source (simply put, without the "printing press").
In 2026, the volume of direct financial assistance from international partners (EU, USA, IMF, G7 countries) could reach about $54 billion.
In addition, one should not forget about the Ukraine Support Loan program. After all, a significant part of the funds from the defense component of this program will be directed directly to the purchase of Ukrainian-made weapons. This allows achieving two goals at once: providing the front with the necessary weapons and returning part of the money in the form of taxes to the domestic budget system.
Also, thanks to the rhythmic inflow of foreign currency funds, the NBU forecasts an increase in Ukraine's gold and foreign exchange reserves to a record nearly $70 billion by the end of 2026.
Such a significant volume of reserves gives the National Bank absolute control over the situation on the foreign exchange market. This guarantees the absence of sharp jumps in the hryvnia exchange rate, makes it possible to smooth out any temporary spikes in demand for currency, and cover high volumes of imports of fuel and critically important equipment.
Risk map: from air terror to the situation in the Middle East
The updated NBU forecast is based on a realistic assessment of the military-political environment. The regulator's basic assumption is that the war continues, and therefore the key risk remains the intensification of air attacks by the aggressor state, the destruction of production chains and vital infrastructure.
Among other significant risks, the NBU highlighted several at once.
The first of these is delays in international financing. Any disruptions in the rhythm or reduction in the volume of aid from Western partners could create temporary cash gaps in the budget.
One should also not underestimate the aggravation of the military-political situation in the Middle East. It creates risks of rising global prices for energy resources (oil and gas), which could lead to additional inflationary pressure on import-dependent countries, including Ukraine.
Potential for a positive scenario (Upside Risks)
At the same time, the National Bank emphasizes that there is also a basis for a more favorable development of events.
Economic indicators could significantly exceed the baseline forecast in the event of:
- achieving significant progress in ensuring a just and lasting peace with reliable international security guarantees;
- a significant increase in military aid, which will allow for faster protection of Ukrainian skies and unblocking of logistics routes;
- acceleration of integration processes with the European Union and attraction of large-scale private investments under the guarantees of international financial institutions.
The National Bank's macroeconomic forecast confirms: the Ukrainian economy demonstrates a high level of flexibility. The presence of financial "safety cushions" in the form of significant reserves and partner assistance creates a reliable foundation for weathering military-economic trials in 2026–2028.
Reminder
Earlier, the NBU reported that banks expect an increase in demand for all types of loans over the next 12 months. Growth is also forecast for mortgages for households.