As of today, an increased macroeconomic risk remains, in particular the risk of capital and the risk of profitability. At the same time, credit and currency risks have decreased, said Pervin Dadashova, Director of the Financial Stability Department of the National Bank of Ukraine, UNN reports.
Details
Macroeconomic risk remains elevated. However, the existing imbalances associated with the war are more than offset by international aid, which significantly reduces them.
The NBU representative also added that the risk of capital and the risk of profitability have increased over the past six months. This negatively affected capital adequacy ratios.
The risk of capital has increased over the past six months, as well as the risk of profitability. The main reason is the retrospective taxation of banks' profits. Accordingly, this fact reduced profitability and also negatively affected capital adequacy ratios. However, its reserves remain sufficient for banks to be resilient to possible challenges.
The Director of the Financial Stability Department also said that credit and currency risks have decreased.
The credit risk for corporations has decreased, as businesses' assessment of their future activities has improved, and the level of corporate defaults has also decreased. The level of currency risk has also decreased, primarily because the limits of exchange rate fluctuations have decreased.
The Head of the Financial Stability Department also stressed that the value of risks remains moderate for the six-month outlook, despite the ongoing full-scale war.
It is worth emphasizing that for more than two years, despite the full-scale war, the average value of risks for a six-month period remains close to a moderate estimate of four out of ten possible. That is, the background for the financial sector, and the banking sector in particular, leaves room for further activity and expansion of operations.
Addition
Members of the NBU Monetary Policy Committee expect a return to easing monetary policy in the second half of 2025, but due to inflationary risks, the NBU may keep the discount rate at the current level for longer.