Ukraine is on the verge of financial catastrophe due to its failure to meet 14 indicators of the Ukraine Facility program, which resulted in not receiving 3.9 billion euros, stated Danylo Hetmantsev, head of the Verkhovna Rada's financial committee.
In addition, funding from the World Bank, a 90 billion euro loan, and funds from the International Monetary Fund program are also at risk.
What risks to the economy and financial stability of the country will arise in case of delays or reductions in funding from partners, and what should the Ukrainian authorities do in the near future to reduce the risk of a financial crisis - UNN asked Ivan Us, chief consultant of the National Institute for Strategic Studies.
Unfulfilled indicators, a signal for the IMF, and risks for the hryvnia: what lies behind the delay in international financing for Ukraine
Problems with fulfilling the conditions of international financial support programs are already going beyond a purely technical issue. This concerns individual delays in specific areas and the partners' trust in Ukraine's ability to fulfill its obligations. This, according to economist Ivan Us, currently determines the further policy of decisions by international creditors and donors.
Despite this, according to the expert, the current situation should not be automatically described as a financial catastrophe, but its significance cannot be underestimated either.
Us points out that support under the Ukraine Facility program is not a mechanical transfer of funds. It is tied to the fulfillment of specific indicators and reforms. That is why the non-fulfillment of some obligations creates risks for further financing, even if some of the funds do not disappear completely, but are postponed until the conditions are met.
Why the issue is not limited to the Ukraine Facility alone
Ivan Us suggests looking at the problem more broadly. In his assessment, the delay or non-fulfillment of some conditions under one program automatically affects the attitude towards Ukraine from other external partners. He names the International Monetary Fund as a key element.
The economist says that the IMF's position is the basic benchmark for the outside world.
The best credit rating agency in the world is the International Monetary Fund. If Ukraine does not fulfill its agreements with the Fund and does not receive the next tranche, other international structures pause and wait. This applies not only to IMF resources, but also to other support programs, including financing directly or indirectly related to the European Union.
And adds: that is why it is not so much about a separate failure within one area of cooperation, but about a general signal to partners.
That is, now not only the next IMF tranche depends on this, but also all other money, both related to the Ukraine facility, and, by the way, including 90 billion from the European Union.
In such a configuration, fulfilling indicators and making unpopular decisions becomes a matter of the country's financial stability for the authorities.
Why external money remains critically important
The economic expert links external aid to the state's ability to finance basic expenditures in the context of a full-scale war.
He emphasizes: Ukraine depends on partners because it is forced to direct a significant part of its own resources to the security and defense sector.
Under such conditions, the issue of external support cannot be considered secondary. The state takes money from partners, including to fulfill social obligations.
In this context, the expert draws attention to the risk that arises when the political leadership or parliament postpones decisions needed to continue cooperation with creditors.
Separately, Ivan Us also talks about the political background, which, in his opinion, hinders the adoption of necessary decisions. This refers to the orientation of some politicians towards future election campaigns instead of concentrating on budget and financial stability.
Because of these thoughts about elections, difficult decisions are not made, which are needed for the state to have money from external partners to finance social services now.
How delayed funding can affect exchange rates and prices
The chief consultant of the National Institute for Strategic Studies explains: external support has a direct impact on the stability of the hryvnia. In previous periods, it was external inflows that helped curb devaluation pressure. Now, with funding in question, the risks are increasing.
In our budget for 2025 (laid down - ed.) the average exchange rate is 45 (hryvnias per US dollar - ed.). But this did not happen, because there was support that did not allow the hryvnia to be spent. This year, for 2026, 45.7 hryvnias per dollar is laid down. So far, this is not the case, but there is also no external support.
The economist explains that external support for Ukraine's economy is currently necessary also because negative trends are currently observed in the field of foreign trade.
He cites a specific indicator: "In the first two months of this year, we have a negative balance... 8.2 billion dollars. This is a huge burden on the hryvnia exchange rate."
And, if imports significantly exceed exports, demand for currency increases. If, at the same time, external support is delayed, the pressure on the hryvnia increases even more. Us explains that devaluation automatically entails an increase in the price of imported goods, and therefore, an acceleration of inflation. This applies to both consumer goods and the broader price background in the economy.
The expert describes the classic mechanism: a weaker exchange rate increases the hryvnia value of imports, which is then reflected in prices for the end consumer. Therefore, the issue of international financing for Ukraine today is related not only to budget discipline or negotiations with donors, but also to the purchasing power of the population.
What the authorities should do to reduce the impact of the financial crisis
According to the UNN interlocutor, the primary task for the legislative and executive branches of power now is the readiness to make unpopular but necessary decisions that signal to international partners the manageability of the process and the state's ability to fulfill agreements.
The problem lies in the lack of a statesmanlike approach, when politicians avoid decisions that may not be liked by society, even if these decisions are critically needed to maintain external financing. If these changes do not happen, there will be no external support, without which there will not even be pensions.
At the same time, Us does not call for panic. His position is different: the situation is unpleasant, but not yet hopeless, if the government and parliament quickly demonstrate their readiness to move according to their commitments. This, in his understanding, can restore the trust of international partners and unblock further financing.
What you need to know about financial programs under which Ukraine receives funds from donors
Currently, Ukraine receives financial support from allied countries and donors under several programs.
Ukraine Facility
This is a four-year European Union program worth 50 billion euros (2024-2027), aimed at supporting the state budget, recovery and modernization of Ukraine on its path to the EU.
To finance loans for Ukraine, the European Union will raise 33 billion euros on the financial market by the end of 2027 by issuing EU bonds under a single financing strategy.
Grants will be financed from the annual EU budget under a new special instrument called the "Reserve for Ukraine". This instrument will be used annually as part of the annual budget procedure to take into account the progress Ukraine makes in implementing reforms and using investments.
Loan from the European Union
In February 2026, the European Parliament approved a loan for Ukraine amounting to 90 billion euros for 2026-2027 to support the state budget and defense. Of this amount, €30 billion will be directed to macro-financial assistance, and €60 billion - to the purchase of military equipment.
The purpose of the aid is to ensure the state budget and strengthen defense capabilities through the purchase of military equipment, according to information on the European Integration portal. Funding requires Ukraine to continue fighting corruption, strengthening democracy and the rule of law.
However, this payment is currently blocked at the initiative of Hungary. In particular, by the country's Prime Minister Viktor Orban.
New extended financing program for Ukraine from the IMF
In 2026, Ukraine launched a new 4-year extended financing program (EFF) from the IMF totaling $8.1 billion, of which the first tranche of $1.5 billion has already been received. These funds are directed to financing budget expenditures and supporting stability. The conditions for receipt are structural reforms, including tax changes and a possible increase in tariffs for the population.