European natural gas prices could remain elevated until at least 2027 due to the war with Iran and disruptions in energy supplies. This is stated in a new forecast by HSBC bank, reported by Bloomberg, writes UNN.
Details
Analysts note that the average gas price in Europe in 2026 could be approximately 40% higher than previously expected. According to the bank's assessment, gas futures in the Netherlands - a key European benchmark - could be around $14 per million British thermal units in 2026 and around $10 in 2027.
Reason - disruptions in LNG supplies
Analysts name the main factor in rising prices as restrictions on liquefied natural gas supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Approximately one-fifth of global LNG supplies pass through this route.
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Logistical disruptions force European countries to pay a higher price for alternative gas supplies, while Asian states are also actively seeking new energy sources.
Europe is more vulnerable to shortages
The European market is particularly sensitive to supply disruptions. After a cold winter, the level of gas storage filling in the region is approximately 15 percentage points lower than the average for the last five years.
At the same time, gas prices in the US remain relatively stable. This is due to sufficient domestic reserves and the fact that American liquefied gas export terminals are already operating at almost maximum capacity.