For several days in a row, the dollar has been breaking records on the Ukrainian market. On the morning of March 13, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) set the official exchange rate at 44 hryvnias for buying 1 dollar and 44.55 hryvnias for selling. However, as a number of Ukrainian media outlets write, by the afternoon, the value of foreign currency in exchange offices had significantly increased.
Why the dollar confidently "went" up, whether the hryvnia is threatened with collapse, and what Ukrainians should do with foreign currency savings, UNN journalists asked financier and analyst Serhiy Fursa.
Details
The expert is convinced: the current exchange rate movement is not a sign of a currency crisis. The trend rather reflects the external background and the controlled adaptation of the Ukrainian market to global processes.
Serhiy Fursa says that despite the panic in social networks and media, it is not about a sharp jump, but about a moderate change in the exchange rate.
If we had a jump of 10-20 percent, we would say that these are records. But this is just plus one percent
The analyst also explains: a moderate weakening of the hryvnia in itself is not evidence of a systemic failure, especially if the market does not lose control, and the regulator does not show signs of losing influence tools.
Dollar exchange rate growth: why the influence of the external environment is a key factor
Serhiy Fursa, in an exclusive comment to UNN, said that the main reason for the current exchange rate movement lies in the global change in sentiment in foreign exchange markets, and not in the weakness of the Ukrainian economy.
The exchange rate is absolutely under the control of the National Bank, and the current reaction is due to the fact that against the background of Trump's war against Iran, the dollar is strengthening against all currencies.
That is why the hryvnia is currently, rather, "catching up" with the global trend, rather than demonstrating a threatening weakening.
If the source of pressure lies primarily in the external environment, then experts consider the exchange rate movement not from the perspective of a local anomaly, but as a component of broader processes in the money market. In such conditions, it is more correct to talk about a controlled correction of the exchange rate than about rapid destabilization.
Is there a risk of hryvnia depreciation?
When asked about the threat to the national currency, Serhiy Fursa answers unequivocally: there is none. He cites the resource position of the National Bank as an argument.
Our bank (has, - ed.) record reserves, so it absolutely controls the situation on the foreign exchange market.
Within this approach, the current weakening of the hryvnia is not perceived as a harbinger of a deeper currency problem. On the contrary, it is a situation where the key player has a sufficient margin of safety to smooth out excessive fluctuations.
In conditions of war, high dependence on external support and sensitivity to international events, the very existence of reserves and the preservation of control by the NBU act as a factor of stability. This does not cancel the gradual adjustment of the exchange rate, but reduces the likelihood of a panic scenario, when the population and businesses begin to act proactively, increasing pressure on the market with their own decisions.
Don't speculate, but calculate profitability: what Ukrainians should do with foreign currency savings.
The UNN interlocutor paid special attention to the behavior of citizens who have foreign currency savings.
Ukrainians should not be currency speculators. This is the most important thing.
The financier explained that the simple presence of dollars without a profitable instrument is not an optimal strategy for safe accumulation, as the currency is eaten away by inflation.
Serhiy Fursa suggests that Ukrainians who want to save money should pay attention to such a money placement instrument as government bonds. In his opinion, in conditions of moderate devaluation, hryvnia instruments can become more attractive than passive storage of cash currency.
Government bonds give you 16% per year, and the dollar depreciates by 5% against the hryvnia.
Is a massive sale of currency in Ukraine possible amid exchange rate fluctuations?
Fursa considers the scenario in which Ukrainians massively begin to get rid of foreign currency savings unlikely.
Ukrainians will not rush to hand over foreign currency savings. This has never happened in history.
At the same time, the financier clarifies: even if this happened, the consequence for the economic situation would be rather positive than negative.
Summarizing the conversation with the expert, it is worth dwelling on several important conclusions in the current situation.
First, the current increase in the dollar exchange rate should not be interpreted as a crisis.
Secondly, the main impetus for this movement comes from the external environment.
Thirdly, the National Bank maintains full control over the situation thanks to significant reserves.
And, fourthly, for citizens, it is more rational to evaluate not the fact of the exchange rate change itself, but the effectiveness of money saving instruments.
In general, Serhiy Fursa is convinced: the Ukrainian foreign exchange market remains manageable, and short-term fluctuations do not change the fundamental picture.