The U.S. Democratic Party could regain control of the Senate in the November 3 midterm elections. Some forecasting models suggest that the party could win up to 55 of the 100 seats, although experts consider such an outcome unlikely. Newsweek reports this, writes UNN.
Details
According to the Vote-Scope forecast, updated on October 23, Democrats could win 54 Senate seats. The model puts their chances of securing a majority at 71%, with a possible outcome ranging from 48 to 55 seats.
Another forecast, Fred Cornell, projects 52 seats for Democrats and estimates the probability of securing a majority at 66%. Meanwhile, the 270toWin consensus forecast assigns 49 seats to Democrats and considers another five uncertain.
Why a large majority remains unlikely
To gain control of the Senate, Democrats need to increase their representation by four seats—to 51. To reach 55 seats, the party would have to win eight additional seats without losing any of its current ones.
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Marista Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, considers such a scenario unlikely. Patrick Ruffini, a partner at Echelon Insights, estimated its probability at approximately 10%.
Elections in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Texas could be crucial for Democrats. To secure a significantly larger advantage, the party would also need victories in traditionally Republican states, including Iowa and Kansas.
Experts also point to historical polling errors. According to Ruffini, in 73% of cases from 2018 to 2024, pollsters overestimated support for Democrats.
At the same time, the opposition party could benefit from the traditional decline in support for the incumbent president's political party during midterm elections.