Recently, the risk of the capital effectively being divided into the left and right banks due to Russian strikes on Kyiv’s bridges across the Dnipro has been actively discussed online. Military expert Pavlo Narozhny told a UNN journalist more about how realistic such a scenario is and how much time might be needed to restore the damaged crossings.
Details
According to the expert, completely disabling all of Kyiv’s bridges is unlikely.
Pavlo Narozhny notes that it is technically possible to destroy an individual bridge span, but even serious damage would not necessarily mean a prolonged suspension of traffic. As an example, he cited the situation with the Crimean Bridge.
To completely destroy a bridge so that no equipment could pass over it—in theory, such a scenario is possible. One bridge span can be destroyed—from one support to another. However, we can recall, for example, the Ukrainian strike on the Crimean Bridge, when two spans were destroyed—one in each direction. The Russians repaired it within several months, that is, they installed the span back in place. It would also be entirely realistic for us to repair it in the event of such a strike
At the same time, according to the expert, Russian drones do not have sufficient power to completely destroy a bridge span, so even in the event of a hit, they can only damage the “roadway.”
It is unrealistic to destroy a span with a jet-powered “Shahed,” “Geran-4,” “Geran-5,” or some other drones. The maximum damage a jet-powered “Shahed” can cause is a hole, speaking in layman’s terms. That is what happened on the Northern Bridge. However, such damage is relatively easy to repair
Can Russia destroy bridge supports?
Pavlo Narozhny also separately explained the situation regarding bridge supports, in particular, that their destruction would make the situation significantly more difficult.
Even if we take some missile containing, say, a tonne of explosives, this still does not guarantee that a support would be destroyed, even in a direct hit. For a support to collapse, an extremely precise hit is required, and achieving that is actually very difficult. In any case, a support is much more difficult to restore, but it is also possible. Such repairs could take several months, but that is an optimistic timeframe
Moreover, to completely block transport links between Kyiv’s banks, it would be necessary to disable not one, but several crossings at once. Pavlo Narozhny believes that such a scenario is unlikely to occur.
We have six bridges: the Southern, Northern, Darnytskyi, Metro Bridge, Paton Bridge, and Podilskyi bridges. So, the scenario in which all the bridges are destroyed, in which they are all put out of operation—I can hardly imagine such a scenario. Purely from a technical point of view, if the enemy is indeed prepared to spend dozens, if not hundreds, of missiles on such a scenario, one bridge can be destroyed. But I think this is unlikely
However, if we are talking specifically about damage to the bridges, it could indeed temporarily complicate movement around the city. In the expert’s opinion, this would affect crossings used by public transport and the metro most of all.
The enemy attacked Kyiv’s Northern Bridge; there is damage — the mayor04.10.26, 10:40
We have two bridges used by metro trains. If a hit lands on the roadway, it can be restored relatively quickly. Across Ukraine, railway infrastructure is hit fairly often, but this has not led to a complete halt of the railway. I think that even if this happens, the metro would be stopped for a maximum of a few days. If a hit lands on the roadway of a road bridge, then it could be shut down for several weeks, perhaps even a month, while everything is repaired
The closure of the bridges could hit Kyiv’s economy
The prolonged shutdown of several bridges would be a problem not only for Kyiv residents' mobility. A significant number of people cross the Dnipro every day to get to work or use services and facilities on the opposite bank, which means that such a scenario could also affect the capital's economic activity.
If we imagine a situation in which vehicular traffic on two bridges is halted, we have various estimates—from half a million or more people who travel from the left bank to the right bank every day and then return in the evening. Therefore, if this happens, it will be a very serious blow to Ukraine's economy. Kyiv is Ukraine's largest city, and the greatest economic and business activity takes place here
At the same time, Pavlo Narozhnyi emphasizes that even if the bridges were damaged, the situation would not mean the complete division of the capital. Moreover, the strategic importance of Kyiv's crossings is taken into account when protecting them, so there is no need to panic about this.
This is a highly unlikely scenario. Even if a ballistic missile or a cruise missile hits there, I think it will be restored relatively quickly. Of course, this is not a very pleasant scenario, but I think we will get through it if it happens. In addition, the Air Force understands how strategically important this bridge is and will defend it by all possible means