China plans to significantly increase freight transportation to Europe in the coming years via the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, which passes through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey, bypassing Russian territory. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, according to UNN.
Details
The intelligence service notes that despite more complex logistics compared to the Russian route, Beijing and Astana are actively developing this direction due to sanction risks, Russia's unreliability, and the desire to reduce dependence on unstable sea routes. The total length of the route exceeds 4,200 km.
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To develop the corridor, the company "Kazakhstan Railways" plans to invest about $10 billion by 2030. This includes the construction of new railway tracks, the expansion of border infrastructure with China, and the purchase of cargo vessels for transportation across the Caspian Sea.
Russia may lose its status as a major transit hub
According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, transportation volumes via the Trans-Caspian route increased from 2.76 million tons in 2023 to 4.48 million tons in 2024. In 2026, Kazakhstan is also preparing an IPO on international stock exchanges to attract funds for the modernization of its transport system.
Analysts believe that once the corridor reaches full capacity, Russia may finally lose its role as a key transit bridge between Asia and Europe, leading to multi-billion dollar economic losses for the country.
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