Trump's tariffs will hit the EU, with Germany at greatest risk
Kyiv • UNN
If Trump wins and imposes 20% import duties, the eurozone's GDP could shrink by 1.3% by 2028. Germany will suffer the most, with a GDP decline of up to 1.5%.
If Donald Trump wins and the United States imposes 20% tariffs on imports, Germany's industrial strength will be very vulnerable. This was reported by UNN with reference to Reuters and Euronews.
The EU is heavily dependent on exports to the US in some sectors. However, in a scenario where the Trump administration imposes 20% tariffs against the EU and the bloc retaliates, the eurozone's GDP will decline by 1.3% in 2027 and 2028 and fall by 1.5% in Germany. This is stated in a report by the German economic institute IW.
For reference
Donald Trump has a trump card that he says he will use if he is re-elected president of the United States in November 2024: a duty of up to 20 percent on all goods imported from abroad.
“Other than love and religion, this is the greatest word: debt,” Trump said at a rally in North Carolina on Monday.
The Republican candidate is counting on trade leverage to stimulate business in the US, create jobs and reduce the federal budget deficit through additional tax revenues.
In particular, Trump has threatened to impose duties of up to 60% on Chinese products and up to 200 percent on cars produced at border factories (known as maquiladoras).
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Analysts' forecasts
The economic burden of tariffs risks falling on American consumers, while US allies, including the EU, fear serious consequences for bilateral trade.
Economists disagree on the extent of the damage, with most agreeing that Trump's tariffs will deal a devastating blow to the European economy.
According to Goldman Sachs, a universal tariff of 10% will reduce the eurozone's GDP by 1%.
Trump's tariffs could reduce the eurozone's growth by 1.5% by 2028 and 1.6% of Germany's GDP.
The impact on other national economies will be smaller, in the case of Spain - by about 0.5%.
