Despite rising prices and an annual inflation rate of 9.3%, the situation in Ukraine remains relatively stable. As Ihor Harbaruk, Vice President of the "Ukrainian International Institute of Recovery" and expert of the "Economic Discussion Club" public union, told UNN in a comment, inflation will be predictable in the next two years thanks to international support, and therefore, in his opinion, inflation next year will be significant, but, currently, there are no clear prerequisites for hyperinflation in Ukraine.
Details
As Harbaruk notes, in his opinion, inflation is "the cost of mistakes at the strategic level of state governance, mistakes for which ordinary people pay."
"We must not forget that we live within a global economy, where countries are closely interconnected, and where significant economic shocks in other countries, or radical actions of politicians or officials of these countries, can have a significant impact on us as well," says Harbaruk.
Inflation in Ukraine slowed to 9.3% in November – NBU11.12.25, 20:03 • [views_2900]
He emphasizes that if we look at the data for November this year, the inflation rate in Ukraine reached 100.4% compared to the previous month. Accordingly, inflation was 0.4% - this is the indicator by which prices increased.
"If we compare with November last year, in annual terms, inflation reached 9.3% according to the State Statistics Service. Accordingly, according to state statistics, inflation is relatively moderate today. If we talk specifically about the consumer market, the increase in prices for food and beverages reached 0.8%. The largest increase occurred in such a product category as eggs - the increase was 12.6%," the expert notes.
According to the economist, it would certainly be easier to predict some apocalyptic values of figures, but for the next 2 years, after the allocation of 90 billion euros by European partners, the inflation situation will be relatively predictable and forecastable.
"But what will happen next with the country's economy as a whole depends on how the Government will work with national business and what support programs it will introduce. We have a significant budget deficit and we cannot expect international partners to continue covering it. We need to develop our own economy, and this is what determines whether there will be funds in the budget to maintain the entire defense complex and social support programs for society as a whole, or whether they will have to be borrowed again somewhere under unclear conditions," the economist notes.
The expert emphasizes that, in his opinion, inflation next year will be significant, but, currently, there are no clear prerequisites for hyperinflation in Ukraine.
"Accordingly, I do not foresee an apocalyptic scenario for the next 2 years. And everything else depends on us, and on how quickly and exactly the war ends," the expert summarized.