The US may significantly change its role in NATO amid growing tensions with European allies and global security challenges. Despite loud statements, a complete withdrawal of Washington from the Alliance currently seems unlikely, but a reduction in participation is a quite realistic scenario. This opinion was expressed in a comment to UNN by political scientists Volodymyr Fesenko and Oleh Lisnyi.
NATO Crisis and the New Role of the US
Experts agree in their assessment - NATO is undergoing a profound transformation, and relations between the US and Europe will no longer be the same as before.
As Volodymyr Fesenko explains, the current tension is not a situational reaction to events around Iran, but a long-term process that began earlier.
NATO is currently experiencing, without exaggeration, the biggest crisis in its entire history. And it is important to understand that this process did not begin today, and not even because of the situation with Iran. It's just that current events have become a catalyst. Washington had previously spoken about the need to review the US role in the Alliance. In particular, it was said that America would maintain a strategic presence and a nuclear "umbrella," but would not participate in conventional wars in Europe if they did not directly concern it.
At the same time, Oleh Lisnyi points out that the problem is deeper - the Alliance itself is losing effectiveness due to a lack of unity.
NATO no longer demonstrates the qualities that made it effective before. This is no longer the bloc that instantly responds to challenges, as it did, for example, after September 11 during the terrorist attack in the US. Now we see disagreements between countries, different interests, and this significantly weakens the Alliance. In such a situation, Trump, who is accustomed to quick and tough decisions, will obviously be dissatisfied and will try to change the rules of the game.
Trump made a statement regarding the US withdrawal from NATO01.04.26, 14:22
US withdrawal from NATO - reality or political pressure
Despite loud statements, both experts believe that a complete US withdrawal from NATO is currently almost impossible. Volodymyr Fesenko emphasizes the legal limitations of such a decision.
The US president cannot unilaterally withdraw the country from NATO. This requires either the support of both houses of Congress, or two-thirds of the votes in the Senate. And today this looks unrealistic even among Republicans. NATO was created by the United States itself as an instrument of influence in Europe, and a significant part of the American political establishment is not interested in its destruction.
Instead, Oleh Lisnyi believes that the topic of withdrawal is used as a tool of pressure.
This looks more like an element of political pressure than a real plan. Trump often acts according to a similar logic: first maximum demands and threats, then negotiations. This is how he tries to force allies to act in his interests - in particular, to spend more on defense or support his initiatives.
Europe between dependence and the need for change
A separate issue remains Europe's dependence on the US in the field of security - from air defense to nuclear deterrence. Fesenko believes that Europe will have to adapt to the new conditions.
The signal for Europeans was sounded even earlier - it is necessary to build up their own defense capabilities. The US may reduce its participation, and this means that Europe will have to take more responsibility. This is not only about funding, but also about real military capabilities.
Lisnyi believes that this could even be a positive impetus.
Europe has long lived with the feeling that there is the US, which will solve all security problems. But this model no longer works. And this, surprisingly, is useful. Europe is forced to mature. And in this process, Ukraine can play a key role.
Micro-alliances instead of the old security architecture
Oleh Lisnyi notes that the future of security in Europe may change - instead of a single Alliance, the role of regional alliances will grow.
The future lies in so-called micro-alliances. And Ukraine can become their core. Today, it is actually the most experienced and modernized army in Europe. If Europe really wants to be strong, it will not be able to ignore the Ukrainian experience and potential.
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Risks for Ukraine and the Russia factor
Against the background of a possible weakening of the US role, the question arises - will this not become a chance for Russia.
Lisnyi admits that there is a risk, but does not consider it decisive.
Russia, of course, views such processes as an opportunity. If it sees weakness or a split between the US and Europe, it may try to take advantage of it. But this does not mean strategic success. Ukraine, together with its partners, is already destroying the basis of the Russian military machine.
Fesenko adds that even with changes in US policy, a complete refusal of support is unlikely, although problems are possible.
There are critical areas where dependence on the US remains - primarily missiles for air defense systems. And difficulties may arise here regardless of political decisions. But in other segments, particularly in drone production, Ukraine is already largely self-sufficient or cooperates with Europe. But it must be understood that it is profitable for Trump to sell us weapons, simply profitable. Therefore, I think sales will continue.
What's next - transformation is inevitable
In conclusion, experts agree - NATO will not disappear, but it will change.
The US will likely not leave the Alliance, but will reduce its participation and review its commitments. Europe will be forced to integrate its own defense capabilities more quickly, and Ukraine may become a key element of the new security architecture.
And most importantly, the current crisis is not only a risk, but also a reboot point for the entire Euro-Atlantic security system.
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