The climatic phenomenon was expected to develop in the Pacific Ocean several months ago, but now forecasters predict the probability of La Niña not earlier than November. This winter, the phenomenon is likely to be of moderate strength.
Written by UNN with references to New Scientist and Euronews.
The expected transition to cooler La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean is postponed. Forecasters confirm that the climate model's influence on the global average temperature is still limited.
I don't know why the process has slowed down. If someone knew, we could have predicted it
According to NOAA, La Niña is expected in November-December with a 60% probability.
Forecasts based on the IRI (International Research Institute) model indicate that the neutral situation will remain during this period. At the same time, it is noted that the El Niña phenomenon may persist until March next year.
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El Niño and La Niña are part of a climate phenomenon known as the North-South Oscillation (ENSO). This is a large-scale ocean-atmosphere phenomenon that results from anomalous fluctuations in surface water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.
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La Niña brings cool and humid weather. Therefore, its arrival is positively anticipated in various regions, such as South Africa, Southeast Asia and Australia.
El Niño is a phenomenon of a sharp increase in the temperature of the surface water layer in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which means extreme heat. In Spanish, El Niño means “Little Boy”.
South American fishermen first noticed periods of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean in the 1600s. The full name they used was El Niño de Navidad, as El Niño usually peaks around December.
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Both La Niña and El Niño can affect global weather conditions, including the weather in Europe, although their impact can vary greatly depending on how far away from the Pacific Ocean a region is located.
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As for La Niña, according to the new forecast, the impact of the phenomenon on the 2024/25 harvest is expected to be limited.
For example, no serious losses are expected in Brazil. On the contrary, it is expected that rains will become more regular starting in December, which will benefit soil moisture.
For Brazil, the classic consequences of La Niña are:
Increased precipitation in the north and northeast;
Dry weather in the center and south, with more irregular rains;
A trend towards drier weather in the south;
More favorable conditions for the penetration of cold air masses into Brazil, causing large temperature fluctuations.