Russia is preparing to launch large-scale attacks in several areas of the Russian-Ukrainian front in the spring and summer of 2025. This may be part of Moscow's strategy to increase pressure on Ukraine in the context of possible peace negotiations. However, the aggressor state is not able to achieve significant success. This is stated in the report of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), reports UNN.
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Ukrainian officials, quoted by the Associated Press, note that the enemy may launch a new offensive operation in an unspecified area of the front in the coming weeks.
Diplomats from the Group of Seven (G7) also agree with the warnings of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy about a possible intensification of hostilities in the Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions. In addition, two Ukrainian commanders reported that Russia has recently increased reconnaissance missions along the front line and intensified hostilities in the Pokrovsk direction.
The spokesman of the Khortytsia operational-strategic group of troops, Major Viktor Tregubov, said that Russian troops had "recovered" after a temporary operational pause in the Pokrovsk direction. According to him, Ukrainian intelligence recorded a significant concentration of Russian troops near Selydove (south of Pokrovsk).
The commander of a Ukrainian battalion operating in the Donetsk region expressed concern that Russia may transfer some forces from the Kursk region to other areas of the front.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War are observing an intensification of Russian offensive operations in the Lyman, Pokrovsk, and Orikhiv directions, as well as enemy offensive actions in the north of the Sumy region as an attempt to dislodge the Armed Forces of Ukraine from positions in the Kursk region.
ISW also reports that Russian troops have advanced three kilometers from the administrative border of the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions in two areas of the Pokrovsk direction. The Kremlin will likely use these successes to increase chaos and fear in the information space.
The Russian military command is unlikely to redeploy troops from the Kursk region if it intends to conduct a coordinated offensive operation to capture or advance closer to the city of Sumy. In addition, Russia likely does not have sufficient operational-level reserves to conduct significant offensive operations on Sumy, Kharkiv, and Zaporizhzhia without redeploying troops already deployed in other areas of the front
ISW analysts note that the Russian military will likely try to get within artillery range of these cities to make civilian life unbearable or prepare for ground operations until a ceasefire is established.
It is unlikely that the Russian military is capable of conducting three significant offensive operations against major Ukrainian cities even after redeploying forces. Russia has suffered significant losses in armored vehicles and personnel over the past three years of fighting and has not demonstrated the ability to conduct complex operations with simultaneous offensives in multiple directions since the winter of 2022
At the time of writing this report, ISW had not recorded any significant redeployments of Russian troops in the Sumy, Kharkiv, or Zaporizhzhia directions in open sources, which would indicate preparations for the resumption of offensive operations. At the same time, analysts suggest that Russian troops may have carried out a rotation that was not reported in open sources.
Key ISW takeaways for March 29:
- Ukrainian and American officials are continuing negotiations on the terms of a temporary cessation of hostilities in the Black Sea and strikes on energy infrastructure facilities, suggesting that the ceasefire is not yet fully codified.
- The Kremlin appears to be using negotiations on a ceasefire in the Black Sea with the United States to test the extent to which Russia can extract concessions from the West, as the implementation of a maritime ceasefire would not require any sanctions relief.
- European allies continue to provide financial and material support to Ukraine and have agreed to expand intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
- Russian forces are reportedly prepared to step up offensive operations in several areas of the front in the spring and summer of 2025 in the hope of influencing the ongoing ceasefire and peace talks.
- Russia continues to strike civilian infrastructure in Ukraine amid reports of a change in Russian strike tactics that are becoming more deadly.
- Russian forces are reportedly using more advanced long-range drones, making Ukrainian air defense operations more difficult and allowing more drones to penetrate Ukrainian air defense coverage.
- Zelenskyy has ordered the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of Ukraine to create a new aviation command vertical within the Ukrainian General Staff and to conduct a large-scale aviation management reform to strengthen Ukraine's air capabilities.
- Ukrainian forces advanced in the Belgorod region and near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced near Kupyansk, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense announced the start of the Indra 2025 Naval Fleet exercise in Chennai, India.