In Ukraine, the Russians have achieved only minor territorial gains this year thanks to the determined resistance of the Ukrainian military. This refutes the statements of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin that his army has gained an advantage in the war, reports Bloomberg, writes UNN.
Putin's statements do not coincide with the realities of the battlefield
Data from the battlefield indicate that, despite a constant advantage in human resources and stable, albeit minor, gains, the Russian army is still far from achieving its goals. The pace of Russia's main advance in eastern Ukraine has halved since the beginning of the year compared to the same period until the end of 2024, according to DeepState data.
As President Donald Trump abandons US efforts to end hostilities, Putin's envoys continue to make the most unacceptable demands for Ukraine to cede four regions in the east and south of the country that Russia has only partially occupied. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy rejected the ultimatum.
The unstable diplomatic process means that the future of Ukraine and wider European security will likely be shaped by events on the battlefield. With Ukrainian and Russian forces now close to a stalemate, the ability of Kyiv and its allies to continue to supply people and weapons for its defense, perhaps without significant US support, is likely to be crucial.
Data tracked by Bloomberg show that Russian troops advanced into Ukrainian territory by an average of about 41 square kilometers per week, less than the approximately 125 square kilometers on average from mid-August to the end of last year.
The state of the battlefield contrasts sharply with the diplomatic shifts in Putin's favor. This week, he tried to buy time in a phone call with Trump, who rejected demands for a ceasefire and threats of sanctions, raising fears in Europe that he is moving away from his long-proclaimed commitment to reach a quick peace deal.
In a subsequent conversation with European leaders, Trump made it clear that he was convinced of Russia's victory, repeating a number of Kremlin theses
How quickly are the Russians advancing
The fighting on the ground paints a different picture. Public data also show that Russia has captured less than a quarter of a percent – 0.15% – of Ukraine's territory since January. The eastern Donetsk region, which has been the victim of the war's fiercest fighting and has been partially occupied for more than a decade, is still not under Moscow's full control.
The figures have many caveats. Fighting, which has been prolonged by cold winters in Ukraine, tends to intensify in the summer months. As with all conflicts, the war can take unexpected directions, fueled by political decisions far from the battlefield.
But at the current rate of Russia's advance in Donetsk alone, a region slightly smaller than Belgium, it will take several years to fully occupy it, according to Bloomberg's calculations based on DeepState data. It can be assumed that if we are talking about the entire territory of Ukraine, it will take a hundred years to occupy it at this rate.
Putin's idea that he can seize all four regions quickly – or even anytime soon – is completely unrealistic
Citing Ukraine's well-developed defenses, he said that Russia is "achieving only local breakthroughs."
None of the calculations diminish Ukraine's growing problems, such as a shortage of human resources, a war-weary population, and dwindling support from the United States during Trump's time.
Risks for Ukraine
With the intensification of fighting in the summer months, the potential for a Russian breakthrough on the front line remains a risk for Ukraine. This is realistic even if Russian troops are advancing while suffering huge losses.
Pokrovsk, a Ukrainian stronghold in the Donetsk region and the main target of Russia's current military campaign, is still standing, but the forces of its defenders are weakening.
While European allies – led by France, Germany and Great Britain – have doubled down on their pledges to support Ukraine, Kyiv's most powerful ally is changing course, which could have serious consequences for further supplies of American weapons after the summer.
However, according to experts, the Kremlin also faces a difficult choice as the war continues.
While Russia can conduct another two pre-election campaigns with its current approach to recruitment, further offensive operations in 2026 will likely require further forced mobilization, which is difficult both politically and economically
Russia has lost over 5,000 officers in the war against Ukraine - BBC16.05.25, 10:12 • [views_4936]