Poland and Lithuania continue to monitor US plans for military presence in Europe, including the consequences of canceling the rotational deployment of 4,000 US troops to Poland. Poland "will not lose" from changes in US military rotation and "may gain a permanent presence," suggested the country's Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz amid confirmation of the US decision to cancel, UNN writes with reference to The Guardian.
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Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk stated that he had "received assurances... that these decisions are of a logistical nature and will not directly affect deterrence capabilities and our security."
He said the US decision to change its policy on overseas troop deployments had been brewing for "years," placing more responsibility on Europe to "take greater responsibility for its own security."
Poland is an absolute leader here, nothing will change here
Several high-ranking Polish politicians, including President Karol Nawrocki and Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, recently stated that they are effectively engaging with the US regarding a potential increase in its military presence in the country.
The publication notes that the Polish government seems to be hinting that the decision to end rotational deployments is part of a larger restructuring of the US military presence in Europe and that, ultimately, the US presence in the country will not be worse than it is now.
Kosiniak-Kamysz, the publication writes, directly linked the decision regarding Poland to Trump's decision to withdraw 5,000 US soldiers from Germany and stated that other US troops could be moved to Poland from there or elsewhere - and even in larger numbers than now.
"What is happening today in Europe and in relations between Europe and the US? President Trump ordered the withdrawal of 5,000 troops from Germany. ... The reorganization process was approved by the Pentagon in the last few hours and involves the withdrawal of soldiers from Germany, but for this to be possible, this process needs to be prepared. The Americans decided that this reorganization would take place not only in Germany but would have a broader European context. [But] if a different brigade arrives in Poland than originally planned, perhaps a German one, and 5,000 troops leave Germany, then, as the commanders of US forces in Europe assured us, this will not affect Poland's security guarantees. The process is logistical and technical in nature and may take some time. We are in contact, in particular, with the Commander-in-Chief of US forces in Europe, General Hrynkiewicz," said Kosiniak-Kamysz.
Poland will certainly lose nothing. I think it can gain a permanent, rather than rotational, presence
Lithuania is also closely monitoring US announcements.
Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas stated last night that Lithuania is exploring whether it can convince the US to deploy more troops to the country, possibly including some of those recently decided for withdrawal from Germany.
The country's President Gitanas Nausėda also stated last week that Lithuania would be glad to see if the withdrawn US troops from Germany remained in Europe, and his country is ready to host a larger group of military personnel than currently.
But a recent poll cited by Lithuanian media showed that Poland is the only EU country where the general public actually wants to see a permanent US military base in their country (51% in favor, 23% against), while Lithuanian voters are much more skeptical (29% in favor, 43% against), the publication writes.
Changes in the force posture
Meanwhile, US Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Thomas G. DiNanno, speaking at a conference in Estonia, clarified the issue of US presence in Central and Eastern Europe.
Discussing his trip through the region, he sought to reassure, insisting that US commitments to the region remain strong, but hinted at some changes taking place.
He said the US had "made some changes" to its National Security Strategy and acknowledged that "some of these frank conversations were not easy, but we are not going anywhere."
"You will likely see some changes, but we are going to do it in lockstep with our partners, and in this part of the world, there are tremendous efforts to reach a certain [goal] of 5% spending," he said.
I don't think anyone should be surprised that there are changes in the force posture in Europe. As it happens, sometimes coordination could be better, but... it was right there in black and white, and, look, sometimes things stay on paper, when they actually start happening, you know, it can be a bit shocking, but again, the US is not going anywhere
He added: "None of this will be easy. It's not easy. Again, some of these conversations were not easy, but they were direct, they were frank, and that's the only way to be true partners and friends – to be honest with each other. And we will continue to work on this and improve where we need to."
He said the focus is on "right-sizing and the right mix" to respond to "what is happening here on the ground."
"It was logical for this brigade not to deploy" to Poland, confirmed the American general
Separately, General Christopher LaNeve, acting US Army Chief of Staff, confirmed the decision to cancel plans for the rotational deployment of 4,000 US troops to Poland during a speech before the House Armed Services Committee, Reuters reported.
The agency noted that LaNeve explained little, other than that a directive to reduce troop numbers was given two weeks ago, and "it was most logical for this brigade not to deploy to the theater."
No threat to NATO's eastern flank
Changes in the placement of US troops in Europe do not pose a threat to NATO's eastern flank, stated Remigijus Baltrėnas, Director General of the NATO International Military Staff, on Friday.
"Currently, there is no threat to deterrence and defense on the eastern flank," Baltrėnas said on the public radio station LRT Radio.
Recently, the US has been adjusting its military presence throughout Europe. According to Baltrėnas, European NATO members are responding to this by accelerating defense spending and military procurement.
"There is a balance in this troop withdrawal," he said. "I will not hide that there are problems, and they must be addressed; we are addressing them. But now I return to the same conclusion: there is no threat to deterrence and defense on the eastern flank."