Oil prices rose more than 3% on Thursday, as doubts about a fragile two-week truce in the Middle East raised fears that energy supplies through the crucial Strait of Hormuz would remain limited and shippers would be reluctant to resume transit, UNN reports with reference to Reuters.
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Brent crude futures rose $3.41, or 3.6%, to $98.16 a barrel by 12:44 GMT (3:44 PM Kyiv time), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose $4.74, or 5%, to $99.15 a barrel.
Both benchmarks fell below $100 a barrel in the previous trading session, with WTI recording its largest drop since April 2020 amid optimism that the truce would lead to the opening of the strait.
Oil price drops below $100 after Trump announces two-week ceasefire08.04.26, 10:28
However, as the publication writes, "on Thursday, Israel launched new strikes on Lebanon, further jeopardizing the truce after the largest attacks on the neighboring state since the war killed more than 250 people and threatened to derail Donald Trump's truce from the outset."
According to analysts, market participants were unwilling to completely rule out a geopolitical risk premium, adding that there was no clarity on what the US-Iran talks would mean for oil supplies.
"You can have peace talks everywhere between warring regions, but until new oil or LNG supplies come from the strait, energy prices will not fall," said SEB Research analyst Ole Hvalbye. "Yesterday's drop was an overreaction."
The Strait of Hormuz connects oil supplies from Persian Gulf countries such as Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Qatar to global markets and typically accounts for about 20% of the world's oil and gas supplies.
According to an analysis of data from navigation systems, one oil product tanker and five separate dry cargo ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours, despite Iran and the United States reaching a two-week ceasefire agreement.
Shipping traffic through this crucial strait has virtually stopped since the start of the US-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, with only a few voyages taking place daily, according to Kpler, Lloyd's List Intelligence, and Signal Ocean.
"Even if supplies resume, the risks will not disappear immediately," said Susannah Streeter, senior investment strategist at Wealth Club. "Tankers may be forced to pass through mined waters and in the presence of an increased military presence, which will lead to high insurance premiums and increased freight costs."
On Wednesday, shippers said they needed clarity on the terms of the ceasefire before resuming transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has released maps to help vessels avoid mines and show safe passage routes, Iranian media reported.
Chart shows Iran may have put sea mines in Strait of Hormuz - AP09.04.26, 09:30
"Regional oil production facilities remain under threat: after the ceasefire, Iran launched attacks on facilities in neighboring countries, including a pipeline in Saudi Arabia used to bypass the blocked Strait of Hormuz," a source in the oil industry said.
Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE also reported missile and drone attacks by Iran.
Meanwhile, after the ceasefire, Goldman Sachs lowered its Q2 2026 forecasts for Brent and US crude oil prices to $90 and $87 per barrel, respectively.
The bank previously predicted that average prices for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude would be $99 and $91 per barrel, respectively.