Stabilization and further downward correction of retail prices in the fuel market is possible in the "coming weeks," provided that the external price environment improves, according to the quarterly Inflation Report from the NBU, UNN reports.
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As stated in the NBU report, the rapid rise in fuel prices against the backdrop of the war in the Middle East became one of the reasons why, after a long period of decline, inflation began to rise in recent months. This was also influenced by the difficult situation in the energy sector due to Russian shelling, the effects of the hryvnia's depreciation in previous periods, and faster-than-expected wage growth.
The strengthening of the dollar on global financial markets, as noted, created additional pressure on the exchange rates of most currencies, including the hryvnia. As a result, consumer inflation accelerated to 7.9% y/y in March, and this trend continued in April.
According to the State Statistics Service, inflation in the consumer market in April 2026 compared to March was 1.4%, and compared to April 2025 – 8.6%. Core inflation in April 2026 compared to March was 0.9%, and compared to April 2025 – 7.6%.
As reported by the NBU, the cost of diesel fuel rose most significantly in March – by 36% y/y (compared to 12.2% y/y in December). Prices for A-95 gasoline rose by 23% y/y (from 6.2% y/y in December), and for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) for cars – by 15.2% y/y (from 3.3% y/y in December).
"The more noticeable reaction of diesel fuel prices was caused, in particular, by lower levels of its stocks in the EU. Additional pressure on prices was also formed by seasonal demand from the agricultural sector, as the vast majority of agricultural machinery runs specifically on diesel fuel," the NBU report states.
The pass-through of the shock from the wholesale segment to retail prices, according to the National Bank, occurred gradually, which was clearly confirmed by the dynamics of diesel fuel prices. Thus, in March, its wholesale cost increased by almost 60%, while the retail cost rose by only 38.5%.
During April, a gradual decrease in wholesale prices for diesel and gas was observed. Provided that the external price environment improves, this creates the basis for stabilization and further downward correction of retail prices in the coming weeks,
According to State Statistics Service data, in April, the price increase for fuel and lubricants was at 7.9%, under the influence of which, in particular, transport prices rose by 4.7%, including fares for road and rail passenger transport by 6.5% and 4.4% respectively.
In addition to the direct contribution to inflation, as noted by the NBU, the rise in fuel prices had significant secondary effects. It led to an increase in the cost of transport services and, through increased business logistics costs, was reflected in the prices of a wide range of goods and services.
According to the State Statistics Service, in the consumer market in April, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 1.9%. Grain processing products saw the largest increase (16.7%). Prices for sugar, sunflower oil, bread, pasta, fish and fish products, meat and meat products, fruits, vegetables, and rice rose by 1.5–3.6%. At the same time, eggs became 3.4% cheaper, and prices for butter, cheeses, and lard decreased by 0.5–1.5%. Prices for alcoholic beverages and tobacco products increased by 1.2%, which is related to a 1.8% increase in the price of tobacco products.