Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries are gradually forming a systemic crisis in the Russian fuel market. Gasoline shortages are already being felt in certain regions, prices are rising rapidly, and the problems affect not only the civilian sector but also the production of components for the military industry. Andriy Zakrevskyi, Deputy Director of the Association of Energy and Natural Resources of Ukraine, explained in an interview with UNN why the strikes on refineries have become one of the most painful tools of pressure on Russia and whether they are capable of changing the course of the war.
Russians have not yet realized the consequences of the war
Despite the worsening fuel situation, one should not expect a rapid change in public sentiment in Russia. According to the expert, a significant part of the population still lives detached from the reality of the war.
According to Zakrevskyi, it is too early to talk about a rapid change in public consciousness.
I am not sure that Russians will start thinking about ending the war. We see many examples of complete infantility. Remember the video from Tatarstan, where a woman was sincerely surprised why the gasoline had disappeared. For years, people tried not to notice what was happening in Ukraine. This detachment from reality will not disappear quickly. But war shows one simple thing: until Russians start feeling its consequences themselves, there will be no change in their thinking,
At the same time, he admits that the first signs of a change in mood are already appearing.
We see that Putin chooses war over meeting the needs of the civilian population. Because of this, the population is beginning to suffer. There is already a certain trend toward a change in public opinion. How quickly it will develop is hard to say, as this is already a matter of sociology and psychology,
Russian oil refining turned out to have no margin of safety
The expert emphasizes that the strikes on refineries showed an important thing: Russia has practically no reserve capacity.
In fact, Russia processed about 280 million tons of oil per year. At the same time, approximately 50-60 million tons accounted for export plants with low refining depth. The main volume – about 220 million tons – was provided by large oil refineries, including Moscow, Omsk, Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, and others,
The expert pays special attention to the Moscow refinery, which became one of the latest targets of Ukrainian strikes.
The Moscow plant is part of a large production ring along with the Ryazan and Nizhny Novgorod refineries. These enterprises effectively provide fuel for the entire Moscow agglomeration – both civilian and industrial. In addition, the Moscow refinery was one of the key producers of aviation fuel. According to various estimates, it provided up to 80% of the region's aviation fuel needs,
According to him, strikes on the Ryazan plant have already led to a complete shutdown of its operations after a large-scale fire.
Gasoline at 110 rubles and a black market at 250
The consequences of the strikes are already beginning to be felt by ordinary Russians.
We see that prices of 105-110 rubles per liter are already officially appearing at gas stations. And even at such prices, fuel is bought up almost instantly. These are approximately the same prices that are currently in Ukraine. But there is one fundamental difference - in Ukraine, taxes and excises are included in the price, which fill the budget and work for the country's economy. In Russia, even at such prices, the fuel damper system continues to operate, where the state is forced to effectively subsidize the sale of fuel,
At the same time, the situation on the illegal market looks even worse.
Selling gasoline at 250 rubles on the black market has already become a common occurrence. There are cases where the price reaches 300-400 rubles per liter. For many regions, this is becoming a serious problem,
Transport and logistics under threat
Zakrevskyi believes that the consequences of the fuel crisis are only beginning to manifest.
Russia is a huge country, and logistics play a key role there. Difficulties with transport operations are already arising. We have seen reports from transport companies about problems with fuel supply. If the deficit deepens, it will start hitting urban transport, freight shipping, and the entire supply system,
In his opinion, the Russian authorities will no longer be able to stop these processes quickly.
This story has already begun. And it will be very difficult to simply turn everything back,
Strikes on refineries also hit explosives production
Separately, the expert pointed out that large Russian refineries produce more than just fuel.
Enterprises such as the Moscow or Ryazan refineries are deep processing plants. They produce not only gasoline or diesel. A large amount of chemical products necessary for industry and the defense sector is produced there,
One example is toluene.
Toluene is an important raw material for the production of explosives. Through the nitration process, trinitrotoluene – known as TNT – is obtained from it. Therefore, strikes on such plants affect not only the fuel market but also Russia's ability to produce ammunition,
Oil is getting cheaper, but not yet critical for Russia
After agreements were reached between the US and Iran, oil prices began to decline; however, according to Zakrevskyi, it is too early for great optimism.
Yes, there will be a certain decrease in prices. But a return to the level of 45-50 dollars per barrel, which we saw earlier, is unlikely to happen. The reason is simple – the market is already contracted. In March, many medium- and long-term contracts were signed for oil supplies at prices of 60, 70, and even 80 dollars per barrel. These will form the market benchmark in the coming years,
At the same time, the expert believes that the main problem for the Kremlin lies not only in the price of oil.
Something else is more dangerous for Russia – the destruction of export and refining infrastructure. That is why strikes on refineries remain an extremely effective tool of economic pressure,
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