The G7 summit brought several important signals to Ukraine at once - Donald Trump, in his statements, does not shift the responsibility for the war onto Kyiv, European partners demonstrate a readiness to increase military support, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy continues to publicly call on Vladimir Putin for direct negotiations. At the same time, the issue of a ceasefire and possible compromises with Russia has not yet become the central theme of the leaders' meeting.
Whether this means a change in the West's approach to the war, to what extent Donald Trump has been engaged in the Ukrainian agenda, and whether the prospect of real negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow has drawn closer, political scientist Oleh Lisnyi told UNN in an interview.
"For Ukraine, the situation is currently developing positively"
The first results of the G7 summit provide grounds for cautious optimism. According to the expert, Ukraine managed to use the international platform to return the Ukrainian issue to the center of Western partners' attention; of particular importance is the position of Donald Trump, who, after the completion of the active phase of the Iranian crisis, received the opportunity to return to the Ukrainian issue.
The political scientist emphasizes that for Ukraine, the situation is currently developing positively. According to him, after his birthday, Trump received the political positivity he needed. In addition, he considers the Iranian case successful, although it is too early to evaluate its final results.
"But the main thing is something else – he has free time to return to other international issues, and primarily to Ukraine," Lisnyi noted.
The expert also points out that it is positive for Ukraine that Trump is outside the United States.
"According to my observations, when Trump is outside of American domestic politics, he is much more constructive. We saw this during the meeting with Zelenskyy in the Vatican and in other cases," he explained.
According to the political scientist, a very powerful support group has formed around Ukraine at this summit, which works systematically and has significant influence.
"If we talk about the short-term perspective, today we can say that Ukraine has managed to pull Trump to its side. Another question is how long this attention will last and how the situation in the US and around Iran will develop further. But for now, this is a positive signal," the expert emphasized.
He cites Trump's decision to stay at the summit as additional confirmation of this.
"There were fears that he might come only formally or leave quickly, as has happened before. However, this did not happen. And this also speaks to a positive dynamic," Lisnyi concluded.
Peace negotiations have moved to the background
Despite the fact that just a few weeks ago European capitals were actively discussing the prospects of the negotiation process, priorities at the G7 summit turned out to be different. According to Lisnyi, partners are now focused primarily on strengthening Ukraine's positions.
The expert believes that before the summit, Ukraine and its partners had different tasks. According to him, for Europe, the main thing was to return the United States to a common position on Ukraine.
"And for now, it can be stated that this has succeeded," he noted.
In the political scientist's opinion, this opens a new scenario for the development of events.
"If the US had not been returned to the common line, then Europe would have had to act independently. But now the opportunity arises to act together, increase pressure on Russia, and improve Ukraine's negotiating positions for the future," Lisnyi explained.
At the same time, he is convinced that the topic of negotiations has not disappeared from the agenda.
"It will definitely return. But now partners are trying to consolidate the success achieved in recent weeks. First, it is necessary to strengthen Ukraine's positions, and only then talk about future negotiations," the expert emphasized.
"Zelenskyy is doing the right thing by challenging Putin to direct negotiations"
Separately, the expert drew attention to the change in Ukrainian diplomatic tactics. In his opinion, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is correctly shifting the discussion about negotiations to the level of Vladimir Putin's personal responsibility.
Lisnyi believes that Ukraine should maximally promote the topic of negotiations, but not in the format imposed by Russia.
"Zelenskyy is doing the right thing by moving this to the level of state leaders. This is not just diplomacy; it is also an information war," the political scientist emphasized.
He adds that in fact, Zelenskyy is offering Putin a direct dialogue, but the Russian leader avoids it.
"Partners see this, the world press writes about it. We are destroying the myth of a confident and unwavering Kremlin leader," Lisnyi emphasized.
The expert also pointed out that despite the widespread opinion about Putin's cold-bloodedness, his reaction to such challenges suggests the opposite.
"We saw his reaction to Zelenskyy's letter. He is nervous. This means that such tactics are working," he noted.
In his opinion, today the international community sees that Ukraine is ready for negotiations, while Russia avoids dialogue.
"Therefore, information pressure must be continued," the expert concluded.
What to expect from Trump regarding Russia
One of the main questions remains the US President's readiness to move from statements to practical steps of pressure on the Kremlin. According to Lisnyi, the most realistic scenario is the return of already known instruments of influence.
"Primarily sanction mechanisms," he specified.
Regarding more decisive steps, the expert notes that Trump is still avoiding clear answers. According to him, a more serious increase in support for Ukraine is possible only if it brings Trump political dividends.
"If he sees his own dividends in this and an opportunity to demonstrate success, then such decisions are possible. Otherwise, I remain quite reserved in my assessments," he added.
Europe will no longer step away from the Ukrainian issue
While Washington was focused on the Middle East, it was Europe that effectively took the leading role in supporting Ukraine. According to the expert, even after the return of the US, this role will not disappear; the political scientist notes that the situation remains quite complex.
"On the one hand, Europe wants to see the US as an active participant in the process. But at the same time, in many European capitals, there were fears that after returning, the Americans would again try to act independently and push the Europeans aside," he explained.
However, in his opinion, such a scenario is already unlikely.
"Europe has invested too much in its own role in this war – politically, financially, and reputationally," Lisnyi emphasized.
The expert is convinced that Europe will not step away from the negotiation process.
"It has done a lot to increase its weight both for Trump and for the world as a whole. Europeans simply have no other choice. Trump respects strength. Therefore, Europe will try to maintain the positions it has gained recently," the political scientist added.
Are real negotiations approaching
Despite numerous discussions about a possible negotiation process, the main problem remains the Kremlin's position. Lisnyi admits he does not like making predictions, but recalls his assessment of the situation.
"The war is Putin, and Putin is the war," he noted.
According to the expert, as long as the Russian leader remains in his current reality, it is difficult to expect quick changes. To describe the situation, he used a metaphor.
"Russia is a plane, and Putin is a pilot who is losing touch with reality and leading it to the ground. And if people are not found in this plane to stop him, the situation will remain unchanged," Lisnyi said.
In his opinion, Ukraine's partners need a comprehensive approach.
"A comprehensive approach is needed - economic pressure, military support for Ukraine, strengthening the West's defense industry. When Putin runs out of trumps on the battlefield, then space for real negotiations will appear," the expert concluded.
"It's good that they are helping. But much more is needed"
Concluding the conversation, the political scientist emphasized that the current pace of support is insufficient for a quick end to the war. The expert noted that he is pleased with the information about Ukraine's successes at the front, but at the same time, this can create a false impression.
"A false impression may arise that Ukraine is already winning and additional efforts are not needed. This is a dangerous illusion. Our successes need to be scaled up," Lisnyi emphasized.
According to him, the support of partners remains important, but its volume is insufficient.
"It's good that partners are transferring weapons. It's good that they do not stop support. But this is not enough. More is needed," the expert noted.
He also emphasized the need to intensify the work of the European defense industry.
"It is necessary to launch joint productions faster, increase the output of armaments, and accelerate supplies. Only then will it be possible to talk about a real turning point in the situation. Now the main thing is not to become complacent and not to lull ourselves with premature optimism," Lisnyi concluded.
Rutte assessed Trump's position on ending the war in Ukraine following the G7 summit17.06.26, 13:17