In 2025, the Russian banking system lost key signs of stability, despite the regulator's reassuring rhetoric. The net profit of banks decreased by 8% compared to 2024 and amounted to 45 billion US dollars, while the return on equity fell to 18%. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service, writes UNN.
The deterioration of financial results occurred against the backdrop of a sharp increase in provisions for reserves and an increase in the cost of attracting resources, caused by a tight monetary policy. These indicators do not indicate a cyclical slowdown, but rather the beginning of a deeper dysfunction of the sector.
At the same time, the quality of the loan portfolio is deteriorating. The share of non-performing loans increased to 11%, and for unsecured loans – to 12%. Such default levels are incompatible with official statements about stability and indicate the systemic nature of the problems, which can no longer be explained by individual segments or temporary shocks.
Even analysts from the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, close to the Kremlin, have actually recognized the beginning of a systemic banking crisis. According to their estimates, the current visible stability is based not on fundamental recovery, but on the dominance of state-owned banks, massive restructurings of problem assets, and regulatory easing. This model only postpones the crisis, while increasing the risk of a rapid and massive outflow of deposits in case of an escalation of the situation.
The intelligence service noted that the declared stability of the Russian banking system appears artificial. The Central Bank of the Russian Federation has actually switched to a regime of manual risk management, allowing banks to hide problem loans under the guise of restructurings.
Under these conditions, official data only mask the real scale of losses. The banking sector will inevitably require additional state support, which will increase fiscal and macroeconomic pressure on the Russian economy and entrench the crisis as a long-term factor.