Ukraine's economy remains resilient after more than two years since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion. Despite Russia's attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, real economic growth in the country is likely to be around 3 percent in 2024, according to a new intelligence-based report by the UK Ministry of Defense, UNN reports.
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A British intelligence report says that according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Ukraine's economy contracted by about 29 percent in 2022, and real economic growth was 5 percent in 2023.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has improved its annual inflation forecast to 8.2 percent for 2024, down from 8.6 percent previously forecast. However, according to the report, inflation is likely to increase in the second half of 2024.
"The continuing improvement in economic conditions in Ukraine will almost certainly allow the NBU to gradually reduce the prime interest rate," the British intelligence service said.
At the end of April 2024, the NBU cut the key policy rate to 13.5% from 14.5% set in March 2024, and below the wartime peak of 25%.
As reported by the NBU, in the first quarter of 2024, Ukraine's economic growth slowed due to budget cuts and the border blockade, but the stabilization of the sea corridor and rising domestic demand helped support the economy.