The Ukrainian ballistic program is entering a new stage of development. Following statements by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy that Ukrainian ballistics will soon be striking targets in Russia, including Moscow, increasing attention is being drawn to the promising developments of the domestic defense-industrial complex. Anton Zemlyanyi, a senior analyst at the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, told UNN in an interview when the new missiles might appear in the military, why they remain indispensable even in the era of drones, and how vulnerable the Russian missile defense system might turn out to be.
Only a month may pass from testing to combat application
Following the emergence of information regarding flight tests of the new Ukrainian ballistic missile FP-7, questions are increasingly being raised about when such systems might actually appear at the front. According to the expert, this process may turn out to be much faster than many expect.
If the missile confirms all the characteristics laid down by the engineers, then we can say that the first combat use is possible within a month after codification and adoption into service. In this regard, modern missile systems can transition quite quickly from the completion of tests to combat launches. The first launches could effectively become both tests and combat missions simultaneously
At the same time, he emphasizes that a much more important issue remains not the completion of tests itself, but the subsequent mass production of the missiles.
The question of quantity arises here. For effective use, we need not individual missiles, but a certain stockpile that will allow for systematic strikes against the enemy. That is why much will depend on how quickly the manufacturer can scale up production after the missile is adopted into service
FP-7 changes its role, the main bet is on FP-9
After information appeared about the testing of Ukrainian ballistic missiles, much attention was focused specifically on the FP-7. However, according to the expert, today developers are already considering a different scenario for using this system.
If we talk about the FP-7, questions indeed arise regarding its feasibility. In terms of its characteristics, it is in many ways close to modern medium-range strike drones. At the same time, representatives of the Fire Point company have already stated that the emphasis is now being placed on the FP-7X, which may be given a completely different purpose – to become a means of intercepting ballistic missiles. That is, we are no longer talking about a strike system, but about an element of missile defense
At the same time, the expert calls the FP-9 the most promising Ukrainian ballistic development for strikes against Russian military facilities.
When we talk about the FP-9, we are talking about a completely different level of capabilities. This is a missile with a significantly more powerful warhead, capable of effectively hitting well-protected targets. It is such systems that can pose a serious threat to Russia's military-industrial complex facilities, energy infrastructure, and other strategic targets
What is known about the FP-9
Currently, the official characteristics of the FP-9 are not disclosed; however, according to preliminary data, the missile is capable of covering up to 855 kilometers, reaching speeds of up to 2,200 meters per second, carrying a warhead weighing up to 800 kilograms, and hitting targets with an accuracy of up to 20 meters. Experts call the FP-9 the most promising Ukrainian ballistic development for striking strategic targets on Russian territory.
Why scaling missile production is a difficult task
According to the analyst, the problem lies not so much in funding as in the technological complexity of the process of creating ballistic missiles itself.
We see that money is flowing into the Ukrainian defense industry. There is support from partners, there are investments, and the Danish model of financing weapons production is working. But creating a ballistic missile is one of the most difficult areas of the military industry. Therefore, the very fact that Ukraine was able to move toward creating its own models in a relatively short time is already a serious achievement
He pointed out that components for the production of rocket fuel and engines could remain a separate problem.
There is a lot of talk now about creating new production facilities for solid rocket fuel. Perhaps this direction is one of the bottlenecks. But while testing continues, it is too early to talk about real rates of mass production, as the relevant information is not yet available
Why missiles remain necessary despite the success of Ukrainian drones
In recent months, Ukrainian drones have been regularly attacking military facilities on Russian territory. However, as Zemlyanyi emphasizes, drones cannot completely replace missiles.
Drones and ballistic missiles are different means of destruction. The main advantage of drones lies in their relative low cost and the possibility of mass production. But they fly slowly; they can be detected and shot down. We don't always know what portion of the launched drones reaches the target because Russian air defense still continues to operate
According to the expert, missiles have other advantages.
The main advantage of ballistics is the difficulty of intercepting them and their powerful warhead. It is such missiles that can effectively hit well-protected objects, military-industrial complex enterprises, energy infrastructure, and other strategic targets. This is something that drones cannot always achieve
He added that certain promising Ukrainian missiles could receive a warhead comparable to Russian counterparts.
If we talk about heavier ballistic models, their warhead can be hundreds of kilograms. For comparison, the warhead of an "Iskander," depending on the modification, is approximately 400–450 kilograms. It is this kind of power that allows for the guaranteed destruction of serious military facilities
Is Russian air defense ready for Ukrainian ballistics?
The UNN interlocutor paid special attention to the capabilities of Russian air defense. In his opinion, despite Moscow's numerous statements about the effectiveness of the S-300, S-400, and S-500 systems, Russia does not have sufficient practical experience in fighting modern ballistic threats.
The Russians talk a lot about their air defense systems, but they have no real experience in intercepting ballistic missiles of this scale. In recent years, Ukraine has gained significantly more practical experience working against ballistics than Russia itself
That is why, according to the expert, the first Ukrainian ballistic strikes could become a serious challenge for Russian defense.
At the initial stage, the Russian air defense system may face serious difficulties. Speaking purely theoretically, even launching several ballistic missiles at targets in the Moscow area could result in most of them reaching their targets
When the new ballistics might enter service
Despite positive assessments of the prospects for new Ukrainian developments, the expert calls for caution in forecasts.
If we talk about realistic timeframes, I think that by the end of the year, such systems could already be in service. But another question is the scale of their use. We see that even some Ukrainian missiles already adopted into service are not used as frequently as drones. The same could be the case with the new ballistics
According to Zemlyanyi, the key factor will be production itself.
A missile can be adopted into service, production can be established, but this does not mean it will be used en masse. Most likely, at the initial stage, it will be about precision strikes on the most important targets. However, the very appearance of Ukrainian ballistics will become a very serious factor of influence on Russia