Territory exchange and leverage in negotiations: Foreign Policy on Ukraine's goal in the "Kursk operation"

After capturing part of the Kursk region of Russia, Ukraine may try to negotiate with Moscow on the exchange of territories in order to de-occupy its own regions. This was written by Foreign Policy, reported by UNN.

Details

The newspaper noted that the latest operation demonstrates Ukraine's ability to achieve the unexpected and exploit sudden breakthroughs, something that Russia has consistently failed at since the beginning of its invasion.

In addition, journalists point out that Kyiv's Western allies have issued statements on the situation in the Kursk region, and none of them condemned Ukraine's actions. 

The analysts suggest several options as to what Ukraine is trying to achieve by invading the Kursk region. In particular, the publication suggests that part of the goal of the "Kursk operation" may be to once again demonstrate the falsity of the red line argument, which Russia constantly talks about. 

США хочуть зрозуміти, яка стратегія України у курській області рф - Білий дімAugust 10 2024, 03:48 PM • 64549 views

Another assumption that has gained great popularity is that fighting in the Kursk region could lead to a quicker end to the war.

If Ukrainian forces are able to hold and maintain control of Russian territory, (...) this could increase Ukraine's leverage in any potential negotiations to end the war. Already, Ukraine's lightning offensive against Russia is undermining the common idea that Putin holds all the cards to dictate the terms of a ceasefire.

The publication also quotes a statement by former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, who suggested that Kyiv could exchange the seized Russian territories for its own. 

In addition, journalists assume that Kyiv is preparing the ground for potential negotiations by trying to strengthen its position and publicly declaring its readiness.

Foreign Policy emphasizes that last time, when the Minsk agreements were signed,  Ukraine had such a weak position that it was forced to agree to impossible conditions.

The next talks took place in March 2022 on the border of Belarus. The journalists themselves called them not negotiations, but the provision of "conditions for Russia's surrender to Ukraine.

російське командування може перекидати більш досвідчені підрозділи зі східної чи південної України до курської області - ISWAugust 10 2024, 09:39 AM • 100090 views

Kyiv has not only changed the military narrative on the ground, but may also be trying to change the narrative of the negotiations - from a land-for-peace deal to a land-for-land deal. This puts Putin in a quandary: the loss of control over parts of Russia proper is a huge embarrassment for the Kremlin

However, the publication emphasizes that this  does not change the fundamental problem with the outcome of the negotiations: the fact that Russia has ignored almost every agreement it has signed with Ukraine.

Addendum

It should be noted that Ukraine has not officially commented on the situation in the Kursk region of Russia. 

Recall

U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller says that Putin's words that "Ukraine created a large-scale provocation" in the Kursk regionare an exaggeration.

Експерт розповів, які політичні та військові цілі переслідує прорив у курській областіAugust 8 2024, 11:44 AM • 52285 views