The risks of a planned Ukrainian counterstrike in the Kursk region are high, especially given the West's concerns about NATO military equipment entering Russian territory. The strategic goals of such a strike remain limited, but Kyiv hopes that it will distract Russian forces from other fronts, especially from the offensive in Donbas. This is stated in the material of The Times, which is quoted by the BBC, reports UNN.
According to Michael Clarke, visiting professor of defense studies at King's College London and a research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, described in an article for the Sunday Times, Ukraine's recent invasion of Russia's Kursk region came as a surprise to Moscow and surprised Kyiv's Western allies, including Washington.
Initially, the incident appeared to be an attack by anti-Putin rebels, but by Thursday it became clear that Kyiv was planning a strategic counterstrike against Russia involving President Zelensky, according to Clark.
Clark notes that Zelenskiy is determined to change the general perception that Ukraine is losing the war.
"Successes in the Black Sea and against Russian troops in Crimea do not attract the attention of the world community as his country's army is slowly but inexorably pushed out of more territory in eastern Ukraine. Zelenskyy is trying to find a way to stop or reverse this dynamic. This strategic military choice is very much in his style: bold and risky," the expert believes
The expert points to the high level of risk of the plan, noting that this may cause concern in the West, as NATO military equipment has actually ended up on Russian territory.
The strategic goal of such a strike is also limited, according to the expert. He notes that Kyiv hopes that the attack will help divert Russian forces' attention from other areas, especially from the ongoing offensive in Donbas near the critical Chasovyi Yar and on the way to Pokrovsk, where Ukrainian troops are facing significant difficulties. In the best case scenario, Ukrainian forces can hope to capture the Kursk nuclear power plant as a response to Russia's occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in 2022.
However, the success of the operation will depend on the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to maintain control over the territory. According to Clarke, there is every reason to believe that Kyiv has made serious preparations, as experienced military units, numbering between 6,000 and 10,000 people, have joined the invasion. The operation began with an effective attack that used electronic warfare, which significantly weakened the Russian border forces and reduced the effectiveness of their drones.
"This counterattack will not be able to turn the tide of the war. Instead, its military success will be measured by how dearly Ukrainians can make Moscow pay for the final restoration of their territory. If the struggle is long and the price is high, Ukrainian troops may benefit disproportionately elsewhere. Political success will depend on how it plays on Moscow's psychology, whether it causes Putin's inner circle to have genuine doubts that the war is really worth the ever-increasing cost," Clarke said.
Recall
Ukrainian troops allegedly entered the Belovsk district of Russia's Kursk region overnight . Local Russian authorities stated that "the situation is stable, but very tense".