Ukraine enters the new heating season with a more prepared energy system, but also with new military threats. Russia is ramping up production of ballistic missiles, changing its strike tactics, and preparing for larger-scale attacks on critical infrastructure. At the same time, Ukraine's energy sector is already significantly more resilient than two years ago. What to expect in winter, military expert Oleksandr Kovalenko and energy expert Stanislav Ignatiev told UNN in an exclusive commentary.
The main danger this winter is not blackouts, but Russia's new tactics
Despite the fact that Ukraine's energy system has gradually adapted to the war, Russia has also drawn its own conclusions from previous campaigns. That is why this year the main risk lies not so much in a repeat of the 2022 or 2023 scenario, but in a change in the nature of the attacks.
I agree that this winter will be a very serious test. The Russians have already figured out our weak points. They know where to strike, and are now scaling up the use of ballistic weapons specifically. In addition, they are gradually moving toward using more jet-powered drones. This is becoming their priority
At the same time, energy expert Stanislav Ignatiev emphasizes that the forecast of the "hardest winter" is not without alternatives in itself.
It would be premature to say right now that the coming winter will automatically become the hardest of the entire full-scale war period. Much will depend on the intensity and nature of Russian strikes. But Ukraine's energy sector is no longer what it was in the fall of 2022
Will Ukraine have enough Patriot systems
One of the key issues remains the shortage of interceptor missiles to counter ballistic threats. According to Kovalenko, even a few hundred PAC-3 missiles do not solve the problem strategically.
If we talk about 300 interceptors, at the current rate of Russian ballistic missile use, that would be enough for about a month of defending Kyiv against massive strikes. We see that Russia is already using over a hundred ballistic missiles per month, and this number is only growing
The expert emphasizes that relying solely on air defense is insufficient.
Intercepting ballistic missiles is passive defense. We must also work on active defense — destroying production facilities, logistics, and creating opportunities to strike launch positions before missiles are fired. This is difficult, but this is how the threat can be significantly reduced
Ukraine's energy sector has already learned to operate under strikes
While the military threat is growing, the energy system itself is now significantly more resilient than a few years ago. Ignatiev notes that enormous work has been done during the war.
Some critically important facilities have been better physically protected. Emergency repair capabilities have significantly improved. Equipment reserves have been accumulated. A very important factor has been the decentralization of generation — this includes gas piston units, cogeneration, backup boiler houses, solar generation for critical infrastructure, and energy storage systems. This is what makes the system much more flexible
However, it is impossible to fully protect the energy sector.
The biggest problem remains the main grid, large substations, and high-voltage infrastructure. These are facilities that cannot be quickly replaced or hidden. In addition, some equipment is already operating practically at the limit of its service life after numerous repairs
Why the West cannot simply transfer more missiles
According to Kovalenko, the problem is not only about political decisions.
The partners themselves are very limited by production capabilities. Russia produces approximately three Iskander-M ballistic missiles per day — that's about a thousand per year. To intercept them, Ukraine needs at least two thousand PAC-3 missiles. But Lockheed Martin produces about 700 such missiles per year, and Japan's Mitsubishi about 70. For context, 70 interceptors is only enough for one night of a massive attack on Kyiv
That is why, the expert notes, the decision to localize production in Ukraine could become one of the most important for the country's security.
License to produce Patriot - a chance, but not an instant solution
Kovalenko emphasizes that even after obtaining the American license, a quick result should not be expected.
In the most optimistic scenario, if there are no bureaucratic obstacles, the first Ukrainian-made missiles could appear in about six months. But this will be small-scale production. No one will immediately start producing hundreds or thousands of missiles
However, in the long term, this could radically change the situation.
If we can at least reach the level of 700–800 anti-missiles per year, that will already be a very serious result. Ukraine will become only the second country after Japan to produce such missiles under an American license
Not only the energy sector will survive - if everyone prepares
Ignatiev is convinced that successfully getting through the winter will depend not only on the state.
It is necessary to complete the repair campaign as much as possible, increase distributed generation, accumulate reserves of transformers and cable products, and strengthen the protection of energy hubs. For local authorities, the main task remains the autonomous operation of hospitals, water utilities, boiler houses, and other critical facilities
Equally important remains the preparation of citizens.
People should already check charging stations, power banks, autonomous lighting, supplies of water, medicines, and food. For apartment buildings, it is advisable to resolve in advance the issue of backup power for pumps, heating systems, and lighting of common areas
"Energoatom" prepares for winter — when repairs of power units will be completed09.07.26, 16:33