The National Bank improved its inflation forecast from 9.7% to 9.2% for the current year, while revising its forecast for Ukraine's GDP in 2025 downwards - from 2.1% to 1.9%, the regulator reported on Thursday, writes UNN.
Inflation
Consumer inflation slowed to 11.9% y/y in September. According to NBU estimates, "this trend continued in October."
At the same time, the slowdown in inflation, as noted by the National Bank, will be constrained by additional costs for enterprises to ensure uninterrupted operation in conditions of energy deficit and high rates of increase in administratively regulated prices.
According to the NBU's forecast, inflation will decrease to 9.2% in 2025, to 6.6% in 2026, and to the target of 5% at the end of 2027.
At the same time, the NBU's inflation report in July predicted its slowdown to 9.7% in 2025, 6.6% in 2026, and reaching the 5% target in 2027.
GDP
"In the third quarter of 2025, economic growth, according to NBU estimates, accelerated due to the intensification of early crop harvesting, stable consumer demand, and a better situation in the energy sector, which continued until the end of September," the National Bank noted.
The expected increase in budget stimuli at the end of the year, as noted, will support further recovery. However, the energy deficit caused by recent infrastructure and gas production capacity destruction, along with the persistent labor shortage, is reported to significantly limit business activity.
Given this, the NBU revised its economic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.9%.
In the following years, as noted by the NBU, a moderate acceleration of economic growth is expected due to increased harvests and increased investment in reconstruction projects and the defense complex. The further European integration of Ukraine and the gradual return of the economy to normal operating conditions, which, in particular, will be reflected in the stabilization of the situation in the energy sector and the reversal of negative migration dynamics, are also expected to have a positive impact on investment activity.
"Taking into account these factors, the NBU forecasts real GDP growth in Ukraine by 2% in 2026 and by 2.8% in 2027," the NBU stated.
The NBU's inflation report in July predicted that real GDP would grow by 2.1% in 2025. And the NBU's baseline forecast scenario in July predicted a gradual return of the economy to normal operating conditions and economic growth at 2-3% in 2026-2027.