In 2025, the bakery market is undergoing significant changes: demand for sweet and confectionery products is falling, while the popularity of simple types of bread is growing. Yuriy Duchenko, President of the All-Ukrainian Association of Bakers, told UNN about how the structure of bakery consumption has changed and what affects the cost.
Details
The demand of Ukrainians is increasingly shifting towards simple and affordable bakery products, which affects the market structure. Manufacturers are responding to this by adjusting their assortment and reducing the share of more expensive products, says Yuriy Duchenko. In addition, the trend for rye-wheat breads is strengthening in the market. The change in buyer behavior has become a key factor that has kept prices from sharp jumps.
Throughout 2025, prices for bakery products in Ukraine grew, but gradually. A significant jump was avoided due to the transformation of the market, which moved towards mass bread of simple recipes. Consumers are increasingly choosing bread with simple recipes and rye-wheat varieties, and we are seeing a further increase in their share. Thus, in 2025, the share of consumption of bread with simple recipes was 50% against 44% in 2024.
The drop in demand is most noticeable in the segment of sweet and confectionery products. Such changes have become a challenge for many manufacturers, forcing them to revise their assortment. At the same time, the bakery industry is changing its approach to pricing to maintain customer loyalty. As a result, the market began to move towards cheaper and simpler solutions.
Consumption of more marginal sweet and confectionery products has significantly decreased - by approximately 20%. Focusing on these trends, key manufacturers have shifted the sales structure towards simple recipe breads. This slowed down the sharp price increase, making it gradual. In particular, the price increase for simple recipe bread did not exceed 5% on average.
However, not only the change in demand structure has become a challenge for the industry. Among other challenges: rising logistics costs, unstable raw material costs, and personnel shortages.
The main challenges for the industry were the instability and volatility of raw material prices, rising logistics costs, and increased labor costs. In addition, prolonged power outages, a shortage of qualified personnel, problems with booking employees, and the difficulty of obtaining critical status for energy supply. These factors force enterprises to include additional "buffer costs" in the product calculation, which in the future may lead to further price increases.
Recall
The Institute of Agrarian Economics calculated that the cost of a Christmas table in 2025 will be UAH 1374, and its most expensive dish will be fried fish. This year, Ukrainians will celebrate Christmas for the fourth time under martial law, so the calculations of the cost of traditional dishes only emphasize how economic changes affect everyday life.
At the same time, food prices in Ukraine are increasingly approaching European ones, and in some places even exceeding them: in particular, butter in Ukraine costs 20-25% more than in Poland.
In addition, the National Bank of Ukraine, in its July inflation report, predicts a further slowdown in inflation by the end of this year, and expects to achieve the 5% target only in 2027.