After the war ends and martial law is lifted, Ukraine may face a new wave of migration, this time involving men. Ella Libanova, director of the Mykhailo Ptukha Institute for Demography and Quality of Life Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, said this during the 10th Ukrainian Women's Congress on October 22, UNN reports.
The reason may be the lack of a sufficient number of jobs offering decent pay, as well as Ukrainians' desire to reunite with their families abroad.
Details
According to the demographer, the possible consequences of the end of the war and the lifting of restrictions on men traveling abroad are currently causing the greatest concern. Libanova explained that after service members return to civilian life, Ukraine may prove unable to provide them with jobs and salaries that meet their expectations.
When men are allowed to leave the country, when they return from the front, we will not be able to offer them jobs they consider достойні, or salaries they consider acceptable. And then the question arises: where will Ukrainian families reunite—in Ukraine or outside it? I am very afraid that a second, so-called male migration wave will emerge
In the scientist's view, such a development is quite likely. At the same time, it will depend to a large extent on the decisions of the service members themselves who return from the front, as well as on the opportunities Ukraine will be able to offer them.
Ukraine may lose up to another 600,000 men
Libanova had previously warned of the risks of additional migration after the war ends. In particular, in August 2026, she suggested that after martial law is lifted, another 500,000 to 600,000 Ukrainian men could leave to join their families abroad. In her assessment, one of the determining factors will be the economic situation in Ukraine, above all the possibility of finding stable employment, securing housing for one's family, and earning a competitive salary.
At the same time, the demographer does not expect Ukrainian refugees to return en masse immediately after the war ends. She emphasized that the decision to return would depend on the security situation, housing conditions, and employment prospects.
Ukraine's population has fallen to 28.5 million
During the Ukrainian Women's Congress, Libanova also reported that, according to the latest estimate by the Institute of Demography, the population in the territory under Ukraine's control stood at approximately 28.5 million people as of mid-2026. This is 500,000 fewer than the previous estimate of 29 million. According to the scientist, the main reason for this decline was population migration, rather than losses resulting solely from hostilities.
Context
According to the latest Eurostat data, as of August 31, 2026, 4.43 million people who had left Ukraine because of russia's full-scale invasion held temporary protection status in European Union countries. The largest numbers of Ukrainians granted such protection were in Germany—nearly 1.3 million, Poland—more than 939,000, and the Czech Republic—more than 398,000.
Adult women accounted for 43.6% of all temporary protection beneficiaries, men for 27.3%, and minors for 29.1%.
Reminder
Libanova previously said that approximately 31.5 million people live in the territory of Ukraine under government control. Demographic losses caused by the war amount to 10 million, of whom 4.5 million have gone abroad; one-third of them are teenagers under 18.