U.S. President Donald Trump is seeking a regime-change triumph in Cuba that he failed to achieve in Iran. However, any move toward even greater action by the stretched U.S. military would involve high political and military risks, CNN reports, according to UNN.
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The U.S. government's indictment of 94-year-old former Cuban President Raúl Castro for murder and conspiracy to murder U.S. citizens is a significant turning point in America's nearly 70-year standoff with the communist island.
Trump and Rubio's escalating rhetoric show a Cuba invasion could be imminent - Axios12.05.26, 14:58
Wednesday's indictment, issued on Cuba's Independence Day, is also a significant escalatory step proposed by Trump. It coincides with a U.S. oil blockade that has caused a severe humanitarian crisis and threatens the collapse of Cuban society; ever-increasing diplomatic pressure; and a recent list of demands delivered in Havana by CIA Director John Ratcliffe, the publication writes.
CIA Director delivered a message from Trump to Cuba - Reuters15.05.26, 13:05
Trump has been threatening Cuba for weeks, saying he can do "anything" he wants with the impoverished nation and could have the "honor of taking over Cuba." On Wednesday, he declared he was "liberating" the country.
"This is a failing country. You see it. It's falling apart. They have no oil, they have no money," Trump told reporters. "But we're here to help — we're here to help the families, the people."
The indictment of Castro regarding the 1996 shootdown of two civilian aircraft, which killed four people including three Americans, appears to be a double play by the administration, the publication notes. Trump may hope to further aggravate the situation in Havana, perhaps by displacing weaker or more pragmatic members who might be willing to negotiate, the outlet points out. But a new front in the legal sphere could also serve as a pretext for military action or a special forces raid, similar to the one that toppled Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, the publication writes.
US announces charges against former Cuban President Raúl Castro20.05.26, 21:14
Lee Schlenker, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, warned that the U.S. Department of Justice indictment unsealed in Florida could backfire on the White House if it is aimed at extracting concessions from Cuba. "I think this will be a death sentence for any potential deal with Cuba," Schlenker said.
"It will lead to a rally-around-the-flag effect and reinforce the siege mentality of the Cuban leadership," he added.
The Cuban gambit is another test of the administration's strategy of increasing economic pressure by imposing a blockade while raising the prospect of using force to compel enemies to capitulate. This worked in Venezuela and helped identify Delcy Rodríguez, a high-ranking regime official who became acting president and is cooperating with Trump's team. But Venezuelans have yet to see their hopes for democracy realized. A similar approach failed so significantly in Iran that Trump may have no choice but to resume the war
Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel criticized the indictment as a political maneuver demonstrating the "arrogance and frustration" of the U.S. empire. His country's defiance challenges a fundamental belief of Trump's foreign policy: that every situation is a deal waiting to happen, and that the possibility of violent U.S. action against smaller adversaries could lead them to surrender and open their borders, real estate, and raw materials to American firms, the publication writes.
Currently, there are no signs of a massive military buildup near Cuba similar to those that preceded U.S. military actions in Venezuela and Iran. However, CNN reports that U.S. military intelligence flights have rapidly increased off the coast of Cuba. An increase in such activity preceded the attacks on Iran and Venezuela, the outlet points out.
US intensifies reconnaissance flights near Cuba – CNN10.05.26, 23:30
But Trump's falling approval ratings regarding the war with Iran mean he has little political capital to support a new military venture. Recent polls by CNN, the New York Times, and other media outlets show that a majority of Americans oppose a war with Iran. Many have begun to directly link Trump's policies to their personal economic problems. Polls also show that a majority of Americans oppose Trump's policy toward Cuba.
"A direct U.S. confrontation with Cuba — while undoubtedly popular among anti-communist exiles in Florida, who are a significant political force — would create another massive challenge for Republicans in the midterm elections. The Republican Party is already burdened by Trump's historically low approval ratings, and a new conflict would play into Democratic claims that the president is ignoring voters' pain. Even a foreign policy triumph in Cuba might mean little to voters struggling to pay for housing and groceries," the publication notes.
"The American people are not asking for another war. They want us to focus on building housing in Arizona, not bombing housing in Havana," Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego said last month, when Democrats failed to block the use of U.S. troops in any unauthorized military actions against Cuba. "They want us to lower the cost of healthcare, not condemn a generation of veterans to a lifetime in hospitals. They want us to make their lives more affordable, not spend their tax dollars on unnecessary wars."
Meanwhile, any U.S. assault or special forces raid risks much greater resistance and potential U.S. casualties than the lightning strike by American operatives against Maduro, the publication points out. The Cuban armed forces have a resource deficit, often with outdated equipment. But this could still lead to losses for any U.S. expeditionary force.
And, as stated, security around Castro is likely to be extremely heightened to prevent any spectacular special forces performance like the one with Maduro.
Decades of synergy between the regime and its people also mean that the cooperation with U.S. officials and diplomats seen in Venezuela would be unlikely in Cuba, despite reports of Trump administration contacts with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro, Raúl Castro's grandson and bodyguard.
Rubio offers Cubans a "new path" and $100 million21.05.26, 08:52
Schlenker noted that Cubans follow a defensive doctrine that requires the entire population to respond in the event of a foreign invasion. "This would lead to U.S. casualties, which would (also) lead to the deaths of dozens, if not hundreds, of Cuban civilians and security forces," he said. "We really won't see a full-scale transformation of the Cuban government. On the contrary, we will see increased repression, very little progress toward democracy and a free market."
Meanwhile, the tightening U.S. blockade on Cuban oil imports is creating a volatile situation, causing extreme poverty that risks social collapse, the publication writes. This could trigger a mass exodus of refugees, which could quickly turn into an immigration crisis for an administration that promised to secure U.S. borders.
"However, the administration's penchant for sharp, rapid military operations — at least until the war with Iran — means that U.S. military action can never be ruled out. Trump often mentions the raid regarding Maduro with fondness in his speeches. That operation may have led him to mistakenly expect that toppling the Iranian regime and winning the war would be easy," the publication states.
"Given the risks and skepticism regarding Trump's military adventures, which are inconsistent with his promises to no longer fight foreign wars, why is the administration even thinking about initiating a new crisis in Cuba? Well, the president desperately needs a victory to bolster a foreign policy that his team says has restored U.S. prestige and respect abroad, but in reality looks quite tattered, given his inability to end the war with Iran and his failures so far in ending the Ukrainian conflict or advancing the stages of the Gaza ceasefire plan," the publication points out.
The prospect of becoming the president who succeeded where predecessors, starting with John F. Kennedy, failed in destroying the regime of the late dictator Fidel Castro, promises the kind of historical recognition that Trump craves, the publication observes.
Turning Cuba from an adversary into a client, as the publication writes, would strengthen the "Donroe Doctrine" — the administration's quest to control the entire Western Hemisphere. In addition to the raid against Maduro, this policy has led Washington to offer financial aid to Argentina's MAGA-supporting president and support right-wing populists in elections across the region.
"Trump's policy toward Cuba has some aspects that might be familiar to previous administrations. U.S. governments have long been concerned about espionage and surveillance off the U.S. coast by adversaries such as Russia and China. Regime change would also deprive these forces of political kindred spirits in Havana," the publication notes.
"No one is arguing that the Cuban government is anything other than brutal and repressive. The same can be said of Iran. (...) But neither regime has fallen yet. And the tactics the president is using to try to cement his place in history mean that any triumphs will come at a high price," the publication concludes.