Ukraine expects to receive about $54 billion from international partners this year, and there are also forecasts for the next two years, a third of which has already been announced, and some of which has not yet been confirmed, and the expected volumes, as predicted, will be sufficient to finance the budget deficit without emission, the NBU reported on Thursday, writes UNN.
International support for Ukraine continues. In 2025, approximately $54 billion in external financial assistance is expected, of which Ukraine has already received almost $24 billion.
As noted, "among the remaining $30 billion - the largest receipts are expected within the ERA Loans programs ($18 billion by the end of the year) and the Ukraine Facility ($8 billion)".
Further funding volumes may vary depending on Ukraine's needs in maintaining defense capabilities and reconstruction. The NBU's baseline macro-forecast scenario assumes receiving $35 billion in international aid in 2026 and $30 billion in 2027. A third of these funds have already been announced by partners, and negotiations are ongoing regarding the rest.
The expected volumes of external support will be sufficient for non-emission financing of the budget deficit and maintaining an adequate level of international reserves (according to the NBU's forecast, about $45 billion in 2026-2027). This will allow for a stable situation in the foreign exchange market, controlled expectations of economic agents, and a gradual decrease in inflation.
As noted by the NBU, "in case of faster normalization of security conditions and lower budget expenditures on defense, Ukraine's needs for official external assistance to maintain defense capabilities may be smaller."
However, the NBU indicated, the risk of insufficient external financing is also relevant, especially in case of a slow decrease in security risks. "Thus, part of the necessary international aid for 2026-2027 is currently not confirmed," the NBU noted.