Next year, the value of the dollar may remain at the level of 42 hryvnias. Oleksandr Okhrimenko, an economic expert, told UNN in an exclusive comment, adding that it is difficult to predict the euro exchange rate due to its dependence on the political situation in the United States.
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Okhrimenko noted that he is more inclined to an optimistic forecast of the exchange rate for 2026.
There are a number of experts who believe that next year the dollar exchange rate will not exceed 42 hryvnias. I also support this. Yes, there are forecasts of 50 and more. There are. The only thing is, well, if someone says that the exchange rate will be less than 40 hryvnias, I won't believe that. But the fact that it will be 42, such a probability exists. Although, again, many experts will tell you that many factors must influence this, I do not deny, the factors are very significant
According to him, the euro exchange rate in Ukraine is calculated through a cross-rate. "The dollar-hryvnia exchange rate is calculated, then the euro-dollar exchange rate is looked at and multiplied. At the moment, the euro-dollar exchange rate is 1 dollar 17 cents," Okhrimenko explained, adding that it is difficult to predict how the euro exchange rate will change next year. After all, many factors influence the value of the European currency. Among them, for example, statements by US President Donald Trump and decisions by the American authorities.
The economist notes that if financial inflows from Ukraine's international partners continue to be relatively stable, there will be no significant changes in the foreign exchange market.
It should be noted that the government submitted to the Verkhovna Rada a draft state budget for 2026, in which it set the estimated average annual exchange rate at 45.7 UAH/dollar, and the projected annual euro exchange rate at 49.4 UAH/euro.
At the same time, Okhrimenko explained that the exchange rate that the government includes in the draft State Budget for 2026 is not an exchange rate forecast for the population.
"When the budget is formed in Ukraine, the budget is in hryvnias, but there are some payments that are tied to imports, import taxes, and so on, or imported goods. For this, the government calculates a so-called estimated indicator. This dollar exchange rate indicator is used not for what it will be, but only to calculate the budget. We see that they calculated 45. So that you understand, according to the results of 2026, the exchange rate may be 42. And no one will remember about 45," Okhrimenko explained.
According to him, the situation is similar with the calculations of the euro exchange rate, which the government includes in the budget for next year.
"But I draw your attention to the fact that the government is not responsible for the exchange rate. For example, the exchange rate will be 40. No problems. The exchange rate will be 50. Also no problems. That is, in this case, this indicator is exclusively of a calculated nature and is used exclusively only to calculate the budget of Ukraine," the economic expert noted.
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Fintech expert, co-founder of Concord Fintech Solutions Olena Sosedka is more pessimistic in her forecasts of the exchange rate next year.
"The exchange rate in 2026 will gradually increase. Sharp jumps are not expected, but at the same time, you need to be prepared for the currency to become more expensive," Olena Sosedka noted in a comment to UNN.
She predicts that by the end of next year, the dollar could cost up to 48 hryvnias, and the euro - up to 52.