Despite the growth in revenue for certain airlines during the war, the profitability of most enterprises in the aviation industry continues to deteriorate. Some air carriers have been operating at a loss for the fourth consecutive year, while those companies that remain profitable are showing a rapid contraction in margins, UNN reports.
A significant portion of the aviation market is operating in the red
The closure of Ukrainian skies to civil aviation following the start of the full-scale invasion forced airlines to completely rebuild their business models and relocate abroad. Most operators were able to reorient toward international markets, executing contracts abroad or specialized work, which allowed them to continue generating revenue and paying taxes to the Ukrainian budget. At the same time, the costs of fleet maintenance, personnel, certification, insurance, and basing abroad continue to rise.
According to the analytical platform Opendatabot, of the 16 largest aviation enterprises in Ukraine, the majority are either already operating at a loss or showing a sharp decline in profitability.
The most illustrative example is SkyUp Airlines. While the company's profitability was nearly 8% in 2023, by 2025 it had shrunk to 0.69%. Meanwhile, the company's revenue effectively remains at a level of about 3.8 billion UAH.
A similar situation is observed in other aviation companies. At "Ukrainian Helicopters," profitability dropped from 1.37% in 2023 to a loss-making minus 0.24% in 2025.
The most difficult situation remains for passenger carriers. Windrose Airlines has demonstrated negative profitability throughout the entire war period. In 2025, the figure stood at minus 98.33%. Meanwhile, the company's revenue during this time has decreased nearly sevenfold compared to the pre-war year of 2020.
Companies such as YANAIR, Maximus Airlines, and Supernova Airlines also remain loss-making, and in 2026, they may be joined by Constanta Airline, Air Taurus, and a number of other operators.
The situation with Supernova Airlines is particularly telling, where profitability in 2025 was minus 3275%, and according to the forecast for 2026, it will remain at a level of nearly minus 1000%. This indicates significant investment costs for the company's development in the absence of a full-fledged passenger transport market in Ukraine.
Exceptions do not change the general trend
Positive dynamics are currently shown only by individual specialized aviation companies. In particular, H3Operations still maintains profitability at a level of about 4-5%, and Cavok Air, even after a decline in 2025, has a relatively high level of profitability at 9.34%. However, even they show a trend toward a gradual reduction in margins.
Overall, of the 16 analyzed aviation enterprises, only a few have positive profitability, while the majority operate on the verge of break-even or suffer losses.
The ratio of assets to liabilities draws particular attention. For a number of companies, the debt load already exceeds the value of their assets. For example, Windrose has assets of about 1.1 billion UAH while liabilities exceed 4.9 billion UAH, and YANAIR has assets of 42 million UAH while liabilities reach over 564 million UAH.
Such data indicates the gradual exhaustion of the financial resources of enterprises and an increasing dependence on external financing.
Tax payments
Paradoxically, even under conditions of falling profitability and difficulties related to the closed skies due to the war, airlines continue to be important taxpayers. According to the State Tax Service of Ukraine, based on the results of 2025, enterprises in the sector transferred 702,230,900 hryvnias in taxes to the budget. This is a record figure for the industry over the last eight years.
At the same time, the largest tax revenues came from companies engaged in passenger air transportation — 526,799,000 hryvnias.
Obviously, in wartime conditions, this is a significant contribution to the financial stability of the state. And as experts interviewed by UNN note, in the future, it is aviation that could become a driver of Ukraine's post-war economic recovery.
An alarming signal for the state
At the same time, analytical data shows that the Ukrainian aviation industry is trying to operate under conditions of unprecedented financial pressure. The closed sky, the need to maintain personnel and fleet abroad, the lack of a systemic state strategy to support civil aviation, and additional fiscal pressure lead to the fact that even companies with growing revenues are gradually losing profitability.
As UNN previously wrote, after 2024, a number of aviation enterprises faced a new challenge — pressure from the Bureau of Economic Security (BEB). After the previous team at the State Tax Service decided to try to convince everyone that the leasing of aircraft that Ukrainian airlines take from non-residents of Ukraine should be taxed as royalties—meaning the use of intellectual property—investigators opened criminal cases against the aviation business.
The BEB is investigating criminal proceedings regarding at least five Ukrainian airlines, including UIA, Constanta Airline, Urga, H3OPERATIONS, and Skyline. These air carriers lease aircraft abroad from non-resident companies of Ukraine. The Bureau is convinced that the airlines should have paid royalties in Ukraine, while completely ignoring the fact that transport is not intellectual property, and that Conventions on the avoidance of double taxation are in effect between Ukraine and a number of countries. According to these agreements, Ukrainian companies pay taxes specifically for leasing and in those countries where the leasing companies are residents.
Criminal proceedings for tax evasion are based on this legal construction, which is not supported by legislation. However, the problem is that such a position contradicts both international practice and court decisions that have already been established in Ukraine.
Ukrainian courts have repeatedly considered similar disputes regarding the rental and leasing of vehicles from non-residents and have sided with the business, pointing out that transport leasing is not a royalty.
This position is shared by specialized lawyers, tax experts, and specialists in the field of international taxation interviewed by UNN. They emphasize that international conventions on the avoidance of double taxation take precedence over internal interpretations by tax authorities, and leasing payments for transport cannot be equated to royalties.
Experts point to signs of pressure on business in the BEB's approaches. This obviously does not contribute to the development of Ukrainian aviation's capabilities. The fall in profitability of aviation enterprises is one of the most dangerous signals for the industry and the state as a whole, as it indicates not only current financial difficulties but also a reduction in opportunities for investment, fleet renewal, and the preservation of human resource potential.
The state today receives record tax revenues from the aviation industry, but in return, the industry operates under conditions of closed skies, rising costs, and criminal pressure. If this trend continues, after the opening of the airspace, Ukraine may face the impossibility of a rapid recovery of civil aviation.