Leading Russian banks, such as Sberbank and VTB, have begun preparing for a debt crisis. This was reported by the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, writes UNN.
Given the high interest rate and the deteriorating financial condition of borrowers, leading Russian banks, including Sberbank and VTB, are preparing for a wave of defaults in late 2025 – early 2026.
It is noted that the volume of overdue consumer loans has reached 1.5 trillion rubles – the highest level in the last six years.
VTB notes that the share of problem loans has already reached 5% and may increase to 7% next year. During the annual shareholders' meeting, Sberbank head Gref admitted that the situation in 2026 would be "not easy," given the increasing pressure of restructurings.
Against the backdrop of official statements about stability, the banking system shows signs of tension. Investors are withdrawing funds from short-term assets: for the first time this year, bond mutual funds have surpassed money market funds in terms of inflow volumes. Since the beginning of the year, over $2.5 billion has flowed into these funds.
Another signal is the rise in financial fraud. VTB has recorded a surge in schemes targeting borrowers unable to service their debts. Defaults cover both retail and corporate segments, increasing the risks of a banking crisis.
In response, banks have intensified internal consultations and are increasing the volume of restructurings. If the trend continues, the emergence of selective support instruments from the Central Bank – based on opaque criteria – is likely.