The conflict between Israel and Iran presents both problems and prospects for Russia. Moscow can use the tensions in the region to divert attention from its own aggression against Ukraine. This is reported by the UK Ministry of Defence, citing intelligence data, according to UNN.
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It is noted that despite the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement concluded in January 2025 between Russia and Iran, Moscow has no legal obligation to provide military assistance to Iran. This agreement, while including cooperation in the defense sphere, does not contain a mutual defense clause, as is the case with the Russian Federation's treaties with Belarus or the DPRK.
Analysts believe that Russia "almost certainly" sees a benefit in the conflict, as it can divert Western attention from its war against Ukraine.
At the same time, British intelligence emphasizes that the escalation in the Middle East could negatively affect the volume of future arms supplies from Iran to Russia. This concerns, in particular, Shahed drones, ballistic missiles, and artillery shells, which Iran is actively providing to Moscow.