The first combat use of the FP-7 opens up new opportunities for Ukraine to strike military targets at a considerable distance from the front line. The emergence of tactical ballistic capabilities makes it possible to plan strikes on command posts, ammunition depots, logistics hubs, air defense systems, and other important facilities supporting Russian forces. Military expert Ivan Stupak expressed this opinion in an exclusive comment to UNN.
Ukraine used the FP-7
On October 1, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy published a video of the launch and reported the first combat use of the Ukrainian FP-7 ballistic missile. At the same time, Ukraine has not disclosed exactly where or against what target the missile was used.
The FP-7 was developed by Fire Point, a leading Ukrainian defense company. It is a ballistic missile designed to strike targets at a distance of up to 250 km and deliver a payload weighing up to 200 kg. Such a system is a cheaper response to the U.S. ATACMS.
The emergence of such weapons expands Ukraine’s ability to operate against the Russian rear, since tactical ballistic capabilities make it possible to reach facilities that the enemy is trying to move farther away from the combat zone.
The very emergence of such a weapon is a very important development. Ukraine becomes stronger when it has not merely an individual missile, but the ability to plan its use
What targets could the FP-7 potentially strike
Potential key targets for such weapons could include command posts, ammunition depots, logistics hubs, air defense systems, and other military facilities.
According to Ivan Stupak, the creation of the FP-7 is a "strong card" that Ukraine either did not previously have or had in a much more limited form.
In his view, the mass or at least regular use of such missiles could potentially affect the situation on particular sections of the front, as well as how Russian troops deploy their forces and infrastructure.
The Russians are already being forced to withdraw some of their forces, equipment, repair bases, depots, and other facilities farther from the front line. условно, if they place them more than 100 kilometers away, while the Ukrainian missile has a range of about 200 kilometers, then a significant portion of such facilities potentially falls within the strike zone. And here intelligence is extremely important. If we see a facility, understand its coordinates, know its importance to the Russian army, and have a missile with which we can engage it, then we gain the ability to strike the enemy’s rear much more effectively
Logistics infrastructure could become a separate area of focus. The aggressor country’s forces require a constant supply of ammunition, fuel, equipment, and spare parts.
It is possible to strike depots, command posts, repair bases, and other facilities that support the Russian grouping at the front. The more such facilities fall within range, the more difficult it will be for the Russians to organize their logistics
Potential targets could also include facilities in the fuel and energy sector if they have military significance and are within the missile’s range.
At the same time, Ivan Stupak emphasized that the effectiveness of strikes against protected facilities would depend on the missile’s accuracy and the power of its warhead.
What serial production will provide
The military expert emphasized that a stable supply of missiles would allow the military command to plan their use over a longer period and distribute the missiles according to priority targets.
Let us imagine a situation—the command knows for certain that from the 1st to the 30th of the month, it has ten missiles at its disposal. Then it is a completely different story. The military can plan which targets are of the greatest value, which facilities need to be destroyed first, and which can be left for later. For example, Alabuga, where Russian attack drones are produced, could be designated as one of the priority targets. If we accumulate ten missiles over the course of a month, we can plan to use them against such facilities. And if the warhead and accuracy make it possible to strike fortified structures, that is an entirely different level of capability
Therefore, important factors include not only the missile’s range, but also its production rate, accuracy, and the effect of its warhead.
After the first large-scale deployments, we will see much more. We will see how accurate the missile is, how powerful its warhead is, how effectively it overcomes air defenses and, most importantly, how quickly Ukraine will be able to ramp up production
In his opinion, the FP-7 is a "very promising prospect" for Ukraine, but its real impact will become clear after combat experience has been accumulated.