Currently, Ukrainian drone attacks on russian oil refineries affect the russian economy almost more than the Western sanctions regime. This is stated in the publication Foreign Affairs "Why Ukraine should continue to strike at russian refineries", reports UNN.
Details
It is known that in October, Ukraine carried out at least 20 strikes on russian refineries. In this way, Kyiv seeks to disrupt the supply of fuel to the russian army and reduce Moscow's profits.
By the end of March, Ukraine had destroyed about 14% of russia's refining capacity and forced the russian government to impose a six-month ban on gasoline exports.
One of the world's largest oil producers now imports gasoline
The publication reminds that Washington is unhappy with Ukraine's new tactics. The White House has criticized the attacks, fearing that they will increase global oil prices. At the same time, Foreign Affairs analysts are confident that "the attacks on the refineries will not have the impact on global energy markets that U.S. officials fear.
They emphasize that these strikes reduce russia's ability to convert oil into usable products. However, they do not affect the amount of oil the country can produce or export.
Moreover, Foreign Affairs believes that due to the reduction of domestic refining capacity, Moscow will be forced to export more crude oil, which will lead to lower world prices. In addition, the attacks could affect the situation in russia itself, where prices for petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel fuel have begun to rise sharply.
It is noted that so far Ukraine has attacked mainly refineries, not oil fields or crude oil export infrastructure. The strikes have caused significant damage to russian refining facilities, reducing productivity by 900 thousand barrels per day.
The repairs are expected to be slow and costly, as the refineries are huge and complex equipment that will take years to design and build, partly due to Western sanctions that prevent access to specialized components.
The authors of the publication point out that the strikes on the russian oil refining industry have been incredibly effective.
Малюк про атаку на НПЗ рф: СБУ працює над перекриттям "кисню" путіну25.03.24, 21:23
Ukraine's strikes on russian refineries are now doing what the sanctions regime has not. Without jeopardizing global energy supplies or raising prices, the attacks are eating into russian revenues and limiting russia's ability to turn crude oil into the fuels tanks and airplanes need
Addendum
The publication also noted that russia's oil storage capacity is limited. Therefore, if a refinery is destroyed or damaged, the oil produced cannot simply be stored for further use.
As a result, russian producers are left with only two options: increase crude oil exports or shut down wells and cut production. Foreign Affairs explains that both options are unpleasant for Rrussia, but increasing exports is less painful than cutting production.
It is noted that in recent months, it has been confirmed that, as expected, russia has been exporting more crude oil, while exports of refined fuel have reached an almost historic low. Thus, western markets are probably not affected, but the Kremlin is feeling the blow.
Recall
Following Ukraine's drone attacks and large-scale spring floods in a number of regions , russian oil refining has fallen to its lowest level in 11 months.