The economic situation in Ukraine continues to be under pressure from a variety of factors, including military actions and economic challenges. This will affect the value of currencies. It is expected that the rate of hryvnia to the dollar in 2025 will be in the range of 45-47 hryvnia per dollar. About this in an exclusive comment UNN told a financial expert, co-founder of the first in Ukraine fintech ecosystem Concord Fintech Solutions Elena Sosiedka.
It should be noted that in currency exchangers in Kiev, the average cost of the dollar is 42.75 hryvnia per dollar.
Factors that will affect the exchange rate
According to Olena Sosiedka, several key factors will contribute to the growth of the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine this year. First of all, we are talking about the impact of military actions on the economic situation in the country.
“The war continues to have a negative impact on the economy, restraining investment inflows and limiting economic activity,” the financial expert said.
The second factor affecting the exchange rate will be the decline in exports.
“Exports from Ukraine have decreased by more than 30% compared to the pre-war period. This seriously reduces foreign exchange earnings, increasing pressure on the hryvnya exchange rate,” Olena Sosiedka explained.
Continued growth in production costs will also be negative for the hryvnia this year.
“Prices for energy and key resources in 2024 have increased by 15-20% on average. This increases the costs of producing goods and weakens the competitiveness of Ukrainian products on world markets,” Olena Sosiedka added.
Business closures and tax burden will increase pressure on the hryvnya. Olena Sosiedka noted that according to official data, in 2023, about 162 thousand PE entrepreneurs closed in Ukraine. In 2024, the number of closed FLPs reached 210 thousand, which was a record high in recent years.
“Mass business closures reduce tax revenues to the budget and reduce business activity,” emphasized Elena Sosiedka.
UAH exchange rate forecast for 2025
The financial expert explained that the current state of the economy and expected trends allow predicting the hryvnia exchange rate at the level of 45-47 hryvnias per dollar in 2025.
“Based on current economic trends, including:
- ongoing war,
- increase in resource costs,
- decrease in foreign exchange earnings,
- increasing tax burden,
We can assume that the exchange rate of hryvnia to dollar in 2025 may reach 45-47 hryvnias per dollar,” - said Elena Sosiedka.
Despite the difficult economic situation, Neighbor stresses that assistance from international financial organizations can play an important role in stabilizing the economy. She added that this forecast is based on current macroeconomic data and may be adjusted depending on external and internal factors, including the situation with military actions and the support of international financial organizations. Elena Sosiedka added that the assistance of international financial organizations can play an important role in stabilizing the economy.
Recall
Earlier Olena Sosiedka in a comment UNN noted that until the end of the year probably the dollar rate will continue to grow. In total until 2025, according to the expert, the price of the dollar may grow by about 2 hryvnias.
“The expected growth of the dollar exchange rate until the end of (2024 - ed.) year can be explained by the shortage of currency in the market, which is due to inflation risks and restrictions on access to international capital markets. It is important that the government and the National Bank of Ukraine take measures to stabilize the financial system and increase investor confidence. At this stage, the priority should be to ensure macroeconomic stability and support domestic business,” Olena Sosiedka said.
Add
In the budget for 2025, the exchange rate of 45 hryvnias per dollar is envisaged.